Chemical weapons are back in the headlines. First, we had witnessed a curious case of Mr Skripal and his daughter getting attacked with military grade nerve gas in the sleepy town of Salisbury and then, just this week, there was a claim of a chemical attack in the rebel held town of Douma. Let’s have a brief but detailed look at each.
The case of Mr Skripal is shrouded in Conan Doylesque mystery. We had everything: 1% survival rate claims, members of the public and police getting affected, numerous claims and counterclaims. Boris assuring the public and its allies that the nerve gas was Russian made only for the Porton Down scientist Gary Aitkenhead to repudiate it emphatically. Labour renegade right-wing MPs trying to use the incident to take down their pragmatic leader Jeremy Corbyn who dared to ask questions, who dared to ask for evidence (which was not there). Then came the recorded phone call Yulia had made to her cousin in Russia which surprisingly revealed that both mortally poisoned, according to UK government, Russian citizens are actually rapidly getting better and are due to be released soon. Fake news! – screamed the unbiased mass media. It cannot be verified, pronounced detractors. For the first time, I had noticed doubt in the eyes of Sky News presenters and it was a rare sight to behold indeed. Yulia has promptly left the hospital shortly afterwards, in an implicit confirmation of the authenticity of the phone call, only to be driven to an unknown but secure location. Russia has accused Britain of detaining its citizens and holding them under duress. Of course, we do not know any facts. We still haven’t even seen the victims. The victims that, as we know now, can speak and communicate. Instead we got a suspicious public statement, purportedly by Yulia, full of officialese as pointed out by former British Ambassador Craig Murray. He would know and seems to concur that major obfuscation is taking place. This begs the question: WHY? Some pertinent observations are there: why haven’t we got a public, real-time coverage of the incident, as we’ve had with Mr Litvinenko, whose father blames British Secret Services for his murder? Well, we know why now. The patients were doing much better than the official version led us to believe. Claims that it had to be Russians, because of prior precedent, do not stack up either. If Russia tried to publicly execute Mr Skripal to deter any future defections then surely that aim was already accomplished in 2008 with the public execution of Mr Litvinenko? Or does Russia need to remind potential defectors and double agents every other 10 years of their capabilities? It doesn’t make any sense. Yet, it was enough for PM May to expel a horde of Russian diplomats and persuade its NATO allies to follow suit. Overall, around 30 countries, including Moldova and Montenegro, out of 193 countries in the world, did exactly that in what can be seen as a remarkable, diplomatic tour de force.
Then we had the chemical attack in Douma. Only Russia says there wasn’t. Who to believe: White Helmets or the Russians? Perhaps we should try to listen to our common sense and logic instead. Asad has won the war, he is just tidying up now. President Trump has announced earlier this week that he’s pulling out of Syria. ISIS has been defeated. Where is his Thank You? he asked. But Asad, having won the war and having surrounded the city of Douma, having negotiated the rebel surrender and their safe passage out of the encircled city, decided to use chemical weapons anyway. Most would have thought that he got rid of them in 2013 under strict OCPW supervision but no, he must have left a few barrels in his personal cellar. He must have some serious death wish and no, it is not a movie. Straightaway, Asad was branded as gas killing animal and Russia as his accomplice. As of this moment, US, UK and France are preparing a military response which would, highly likely, involve strikes by new, shiny and smart missiles. Russia promised to shoot down any approaching missiles and their launchpads if any Russian personnel was hurt. Given that Russian soldiers and military advisers can be found pretty much at every Syrian base, there is a high degree of probability that certain mishaps are unavoidable. Just like that we are potentially on the brink of a massive escalation and direct confrontation between Russia and US. Even Tony Blair has emerged from unseen depths, like mythical Jormungandr, to demand blood. Surely, a first sign of Ragnarok?
We live in dangerous times. We no longer require evidence to accuse. There is a clear attempt to make Russia a pariah and rogue state that is guilty of every sin known to man. This is state-sponsored Russophobia and extremely dangerous and short-sighted in nature. Once the Russian establishment fully absorbs the fact that they have been cast in a role of a perennial villain then their attitudes and actions would markedly change for the worse. Competition is one thing, but when nations, claiming to be exceptional, go out of their way to hinder the development of other countries then some sort of military action to resolve the dispute is inevitable and we know what this means. This is not the case of: we are the West, and unless you adhere to our values and standards then you would never be allowed into our gentleman’s club. This is the case of, we would not allow you in and moreover we would do our best to sabotage other gentlemen’s clubs that might arise due to limited access to the former. The times are different and countries like Russia, China, India and quite a few others, in a not so distant future, would demand to be involved in the process of rule-making and not just rule-taking. This is already visible in the defence and arms exports sectors, where big buyers demand that helicopters, tanks and other military hardware is assembled locally. This is just one trend. Others will follow. The current model that the West, and US more specifically, has on the table is no longer appealing to the rising powers and they are prepared to show their teeth. It is in the interests of the West, to open up and show a more sober and fair approach, while we are still ahead and have the competitive advantage.