History was made on the 27th of April 2018. The term is thrown around without a second thought nowadays but what happened today will enter the annals of history. Two Korean leaders, North’s Kim Jong-un and South’s Moon Jae-in, have agreed to the following key points:
- End active hostilities between two nations
- Connecting and modernising railways and roads across the border
- Reunion of families that became divided after the war
Important statement of intent was made and initial groundwork for economic cooperation was laid. The emotional aspect, perhaps the most important and delicate of all, was also ticked emphatically. How do you overcome decades of fear and hatred? By endorphin overdose. Most of important of which was stated desire to work towards denuclearising the Korean peninsula.
What is the geopolitical meaning? Could this lead to reunification?
Kim played a blinder with a very weak hand. It is my belief that he needed a pretext and he has made up his mind some time ago for this step to take place. He understand the needs of his country well and he sees immense potential in the reunification. First of all for himself. By this I do not mean some economic gain. No. Like all power crazed or power hungry, he wants to be remembered by history textbooks. This is a tectonic step towards that goal. Secondly, his popularity in North Korea would skyrocket. He didn’t bend the knee, showed spunk and shook hands with Moon Jae-in as an equal. This is important for the home audience to avoid any lingering bitterness after decades long stand-off. He could not have done it alone. It was almost by a whim of fate that we got the right players at the right time in the right place. Moon Jae-in is another on a cusp of history. He was widely criticised for his pro North Korean stance during his election campaign. He afforded himself to make comments like: “I’m pro-U.S., but now South Korea should adopt diplomacy in which it can discuss a U.S. request and say no to the Americans.” He is not just any typical Asian head of state under the US security umbrella. He’s fearless, thinks outside the box, sees things his way and prepared to act upon it. Where could this rapprochement lead? To the creation of a Super Korean Dragon. Economic power and global connections of the South Korea coupled with North’s military muscle and well educated, hungry for success and opportunity populace. The appearance of an economically strong, tough and independent player in the region. Another inevitable step towards the new balance of power: a multi-polar world.
A couple of passing notes on other geopolitical players is noteworthy. After all, the four way talks involving US (patron of SK) and China (Defender of the North) were agreed and would at some point get under way.
US: President Trump was the catalyst behind this historic episode. The ingredients were right, as described above, but lacked that spark and he provided it. He was bombastic and brinkmanship like when it didn’t matter and showed great reserve when it mattered. He ridiculed and professed love. This is a standard behaviour of someone who revels in chaos and there is a method to his madness. He met a soul mate in Kim. They understood each other without speaking. Trump’s greatest act in this drama was to simply let it happen. It didn’t happen under Obama or any other more desirable predecessor, it happened under a man who was supposed to destroy the world and still causes sleepless nights for the pc cohorts. All I can say: Bravo, Mr President. You certainly are a deal maker!
China: The Chinese used the situation to win a few brownie points with Trump. They detest the man but for the Chinese it is all about an economy – the guarantor of their power and independence. They enjoy a huge trade surplus (2017: mind-boggling $375bn) with US and would like at least keep that trajectory of travel. The thinking in Beijing goes as follows: we aid you with the local L’Enfant terrible but you go easy on us when it comes to trade tariffs and barriers. This might not work and the effect could be negligible but the Chinese, just like the Germans, have no choice. There is a disbalance that needs to be addressed and there is a golden haired child determined to address it.
Kim, meanwhile powered on regardless: “We are brothers and one nation”. Wise words by a man, who was perennially ridiculed by the short-sighted media and small time politicians.