Iran Deal Cancelled: Implications

Ever since President Trump has pulled out of the Iran deal, public with a passing interest have been subjected to a cacophony of alarmed voices and opinions. Experts, mass media and even high level officials of various states were in broad agreement. The gist of it came down to a simple statement: How can we trust US to honour any agreements they make? The subsequent parallel was drawn in regards to the North Korea talks. Why would North Korean leader trust US/Trump when he cancelled a similar landmark Iran deal at a whim? There is some truth to it, in a wider sense, as another example comes to mind: 2002 ABM treaty. But we must address each situation separately as Iran and North Korea are unique in their own ways. Only Trump, hitherto on the US side, could have solved North Korean conundrum as it required a unique, bespoke approach which he provided. Each one of his predecessors lacked both in political will and personal charisma to make it happen. Let’s not forget that North Korea is already in possession of nuclear missiles capable of reaching US territory. This deal is happening, no matter what. Kim understands the difference and is not perturbed by the developments concerning the Iran deal. Then there is another aspect to this that plays a crucial role. North Korean neighbours and nominal adversaries are interested in deal becoming a success: South Korea and Japan – key US allies in Asia-Pacific. This is very important and helps to facilitate the process. In regards to Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia (key US allies in the Middle East) were not interested and opposed the Iranian deal. They believed and still do that the deal would make Iran stronger economically (the removal of the crippling sanction regime) while not stopping their “insidious” nuclear programme. This doesn’t help and it didn’t in the end. Trump knows that the Iran deal can be reversed and probably would be by the Trump’s successor – problem, broadly, solved, if there ever was one. North Korea, on the other hand, is a once in a lifetime opportunity and only  Trump’s mercurial touch can cut through that Gordian knot. He will grasp with both hands as history beckons. This is why I believe that parallels being drawn are not quite relevant and out place on a grander scheme of things. Just more Trump hysteria. Plus, let us not forget that the reversal of Iran deal was one of Trump’s key pre-election promises. He likes to be seen as a man of his word. This would play out nicely and help him greatly in 2020 campaign. As for European leaders shaking their fists in righteous anger across the ocean, well, they, just like Trump, will fade with time and new faces will emerge who would be keen to start afresh. Important to remember two pearls of wisdom: “universe is flux” and “deal concluded was the necessity of the past, deal broken is the necessity of the present.” Trump embodies both perfectly.