XXI century will be an age of Great Power competition. Perhaps, the final one. The age of consensus had been toppled by wave after wave of populism. History has not ended after all despite triumphalism of the global ruling elites, inspired by Fukuyama and the end of the Cold War. Time to re-evaluate UK’s alliances and long held foreign policy views.
Great Powers: USA, China and Russia
USA: The special relationship is dead. It’s been dead for some time. It had formed when the power level or we can call it prestige of USA and UK were equivalent or thereabouts. A lot has changed since then. USA got stronger, both economically and militarily, and UK got weaker in every aspect. USA values power and strength above all else, therefore it comes as no surprise that US diplomats, including Obama the First enjoyed a good snigger behind the scenes about our unrequited love. Time to admit, although some still prefer to stay in the la la land, that the special relationship had drawn to its close. Reagan/Thatcher tango was truly the last dance. Tony Blair and subsequent PMs proved more yes men than equal partners in decision making processes. UK Must distance itself from the US. UK must stop acquiescing to every US demand. We lose our appeal. We become a given, a banker on a night-out, which hardly adds to our allure. UK must teach US a lesson and make them work hard towards regaining UK as its closest ally. Both are Anglo-Saxon countries with similar culture and outlook. Good place to start is in Venezuela – US new regime change target – and reducing our defence spending below 2%. This should catch US attention.
China: The most complicated relationship to build of them all. China must be cultivated to see UK as a trusted conciliere. China hasn’t got many allies. There might be a military alliance with Russia but it needs allies with large reserves of soft power. UK has done a lot in its history, i.e. Opium wars, to create a lot of bad blood with China. And well deserved it is. But there were positive steps as well, such is the handover of Hong Kong. XXI century would be marked by the stand-off between China and USA. The trajectory of that struggle is still being determined. UK must play the role of an oil mechanic. We must mediate without taking sides. With time, both China and US, will come to view UK as an excellent neutral interlocutor. UK’s role here is to reduce the tension and to accelerate the dawn of the new consensus based on multilateral approach. To make the relationship stronger, UK must recognise Taiwan as part of China, a gesture of enormous significance to Chinese. This will catch their attention. We must work with Chinese tech giants, both in nuclear and building G5 network. We must show that we trust them. It would echo back with interest. This stance would demonstrate to US and the world, UK’s new, independent approach to world affairs. UK needs to rebuild its economy and Chinese investments would be more than welcome. This would create interdependence and much needed goodwill.
Russia: The easiest relationship to build of them all. UK must first of all get out Great Game mindset that belongs to the XIX century. Every time UK’s existence was in danger: Napoleonic wars, WWI and WWII – Russia and UK were on the same side. A friend in need is a friend indeed. Why do we so easily forget? One important thing to understand about Russia. They are not revanchist and do not plan to take over, no country can anymore, but they would never accept US as the global policeman. A position widely accepted in the West, not so much so anywhere else. For evidence look no further that pronouncement of Mr Rasmussen, former PM of Denmark and ex-head of NATO. Ordinary Russians are very fond of UK. British cinema, music and culture has captured Russian imagination long ago. Affluent Russians love to come here and Russian corporations like to invest and float their companies in London. My advice, grab it with both hands and build a strong interdependent economic relationship. No eggs in one basket. Do it before, Germany or France, because one of those three will catch the Russian golden goose.
Summary: Look at USA, Russia and China as big multinational corporations. What do they need? They need bankers, lawyers and accountants to make them run better, smoother and more efficiently. We would be that jack of all trades, that will grease the wheels and make the world go round.