One of the issues that I would be following in this blog is the issue of Brexit and post-Brexit EU in general. Brexit, undoubtedly, was a tectonic event both for United Kingdom and European Union. Forty years of rowing in one direction reversed in one stroke. The event so critically pivotal that it could prove the undoing of the European Union itself given the current rising level of euro-scepticism. I understand the pain and teeth gnashing of Civil Service and business community who will have to adjust to new reality but such are political risks. They had plenty of time to prepare. Since 2014 in fact. Blame your hubris and bad business models incapable of facing headwind. Do not blame Brexit.
I believed in EU until the invasion of Iraq in 2003 (I also blame younger idealistic self). I hoped that the EU would become an alternative power centre and will act as an independent arbiter between US, Russia and China. Alas, EU has become a vassal state which easily splits into Old and New Europe at the snap of the fingers from across the pond. Where was European unity then? There is no unity just self-interest. New Europe, US and UK were wrong. Terribly wrong. If only New Europe (represented primarily by Poland and Baltic states) had supported President Chirac and Chancellor Schroeder then what is happening right now in the Middle East could have been averted but I digress. I will make it be known that I have voted for Brexit and for me the choice facing the British public was as clear as a delight. One position that has resonated with me more than any other – post-Brexit analysis by renowned historian Niall Ferguson (a staunch Remainer who called proponents of Brexit – Angloonies and was one of 300 historians who signed an open letter making a pro-EU case). For him to come out, put his hand up and admit to his mistake was admirable. I disagree with Mr Ferguson on a number of issues but here he had nailed the problem on its head. You can read the full article here:
https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/12/12/was-wrong-brexit/P9xUZuE1OGjpkV1wxiZ79J/story.html
The main takeaways:
- Failure of European monetary union
- Failure of common foreign policy
- Failure to deal with financial crisis
- Failure to deal with mass migration (related to mistakes in foreign policy)
- Failure to address David Cameron’s concerns in Feb 2016
I particularly agree with a macro view he expressed in this particular passage:
“For years I have argued that Europe became the world’s most dynamic civilization after around 1500 partly because of political fragmentation and competition between multiple independent states. I have also argued that the rule of law — and specifically the English common law — was one of the “killer applications” of western civilization”.
Niall Ferguson was one of the Experts who vociferously predicted doom and gloom. It is my firm belief that the so-called “Experts” were driven by ulterior motives. If they were not then how did they manage to get it so wrong? Emergency budget, house price crash and WW3 to name a few? Unscrupulous or incompetent? Given the sample size of Experts in question we can safely rule out the latter. In Niall’s article, we can see what was behind one of those predictions – to help his mate Dave. What was driving the rest of the Experts brigade I will leave to your imagination.
In this blog, I will continue to debunk pro-EU, and essentially anti-British, argument that Britain made a huge mistake and about to walk off the cliff edge. My stated aim: look at the fundamentals and ignore the Experts who are hellbent on shaping the world rather than on providing sound unbiased advice.