A comedian becomes a President of Ukraine by trouncing hapless Poroshenko at the polls by a 50% margin. The result is an emphatic condemnation of President Poroshenko himself and the myriad of his controversial and populist policies: economy is in tatters, civil war in the east goes on unabated, new societal splits were created by his assault on the official church of Ukraine and the status of the Russian language – most commonly spoken tongue in the country. Poroshenko was the darling of the EU and the US although the shine has somewhat markedly dimmed with the passage of time. The gamble, long in preparation, was made to drive a wedge between the two nations which many Russians and Ukrainians consider to be the same people harking back to Kievan Rus times in the 11th century. They have thrown a lot of money and political capital behind Poroshenko in the last 5 years. Thus their shock at the result and the rush to build bridges with newly elected President Ze. If the latter were to reverse the course undertaken in the past 5 years then it would be a total fiasco of the US and to lesser extent EU foreign policy. At the end of the day, visa free travel and association agreement looked great on paper but didn’t bring mirth or prosperity to the disenchanted populace. Certainly worth getting a macroeconomic snapshot which doesn’t paint a pretty picture: nominal GDP down from $183bn to $130bn, GDP per capita went from $4,030 to even paltrier $2,656, debt-to-GDP ratio went from 40% to 60% having reached 81% in 2016. Ukraine is a patient on IMF life support at the moment. Things some people do for the greater cause at the expense of millions… This dire economic landscape comes with a twist: according to UkrStat (the State Statistics Service of Ukraine), the Russian Federation became the largest investor in Ukraine’s economy in 2018. Go figure. President Ze is somewhat of a wildcard, as in he can go two ways. If he maintains the current course, a serious escalation with Russia beckons. Once Russia realizes that the current trajectory of travel is here to stay then they will activate their efforts at undermining Ukraine. They see NATO aspirations of a certain stratum of Ukrainian political elites/society as an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs. Would US like it if Russians started building military bases in Mexico or Canada? No. It goes both ways. At the moment, Putin still harbours hope that the new leader would kick start a more balanced approach to Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy. Ukraine, by itself only constituting a few regions historically, has been a battlefield for Russia, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Sweden, Ottoman Empire for many centuries. In my humble opinion, federalization and neutrality is the best way forward that takes into account Ukraine’s diverse population, geographic location, history and economic structure. Whether common sense takes hold is another matter. Personally, I predict a dangerous escalation before a screeching 180. Brinkmanship is the word of the day.
Some were bemused by Kim’s visit and meeting with Putin in Vladivostok, Russia. Allow me to elaborate: as I have written before, Kim is very keen on striking a deal and setting North Korea on a new path to prosperity and harmony with its neighbors. China, Russia, South Korea and the region in general desire the same. It is a win-win for everyone. There is a lot of economic potential ready to be unlocked, especially once the Korean reunification takes place, and I am sure no one in the region enjoys watching North Korean’s nuclear sabre rattling which they would like to stop. This plays handsomely into the general narrative of the approaching Asian Age. There is, of course, an elephant in the room, luckily, a benevolent elephant who is keen on doing a deal. It’s his thing, you know. In many ways, the current chronology of the events bears a striking resemblance to the Star wars Trilogy. Singapore summit brought New Hope. Then we had witnessed how Empire Strikes Back in Hanoi, Vietnam. Elated by the progress and good will of the first summit, Trump pushed too far. Kim was ready to settle for 60/40 or perhaps even 70/30 in US favour but Trump wanted more. He wanted to see, feeling greater need for a deal from the Korean side, how much he can push. He miscalculated but not by much. Kim is a proud person and the visuals (how things are being perceived) matter but he would have also felt the chill of a potential failure because then what? That brings us to the third summit, yet to take place but currently being discussed by both parties. Why would the third time be any different? Both sides, having learned the lessons from the second meeting, would be in prime position to strike a deal. We do not have infinite turns and it is important not to lose the positive momentum. Kim went to Russia to be briefed by Vladimir Putin. Since both parties have the same geopolitical aims, Kim wanted his advice on how to deal with Trump and the United States. The advice that Kim would not have been able to get anywhere else. Or trust, for that matter. Watch the space. I have a feeling, that in the next installment, The Return of the Deal, the world would be third time lucky.
Spare a thought for the former Defence Secretary and fireplace salesperson Mr Gavin Williamson. Ignominious end for a political amateur who in a short period of time managed to tell Russia to “shut up and go away”, sent British aircraft carrier to the South China Sea to teach nuclear powered and most populous nation in the world a lesson and arrogantly dismissive of his own now former boss: “ I made her, I’ll break her”. Yesterday he was fired for being a mole, leaking from the holy of holies – the NSC meeting. With his political career in tatters, I can only hope his children can forgive him.