So it happened. Just over a month ago.
The most depressing aspect of this defeat is the equanimity with which I have taken it on the chin. Years and years of insidious infighting and media bombardment played a crucial role but in the end Brexit was King. As many, myself included, have warned. As someone who is becoming more and more optimistic as the years go by – I have a feeling that I am in the minority here – my first and lasting thought was that at least now Brexit will get done. Historical and fatalistic symbolism of Brexit prevailed above all else. It was the right thing to happen and sadly, we were on the wrong side of history…and democracy. Where did the mistakes happen? I would point to two events:
1) Corbyn succumbing to the Remain narrative to achieve illusory unity. Corbyn is a Leaver. He should have stuck to his guns. It just looked fake and hurt him time and again. Remember Johnson’s ridicule of Corbyn being taken hostage by the Remainers? It was funny because it was true.
2) Once his 7/10 Remain stance has backfired, he was challenged by a small timer under the name of Owen Smith. Corbyn easily won and should have used that mandate to purge the ranks. It could have cost him his title but it would have secured and defined the party’s trajectory for a long time to come.
Now Corbyn lost the election and could lose the party in April 2020 when the result of the leadership elections is announced. I am quietly hoping for RLB/Burgon ticket. Wouldn’t mind Butler or Angela in Deputy role either but that in that order of preference.
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In true Vladimir style, President of Russia dropped an A-bomb on Russia’s elite and Kremlinologists worldwide. Russian constitution to be redrawn. Presidential powers would be somewhat reduced and limited to two terms. Putin doesn’t want another Putin because it could easily turn out to be another Yeltsin or Gorbachev. Thomas Carlyle’s words ring true. Great man theory strikes a chord with me but “great men” could be good and bad. Vlad knows that his place in the pantheon of greatness is already secure but how do you secure your legacy? By having spent a good part of the last two decades as the elected, benevolent autocrat, he wants to be known as a statesman who brought true democracy to Russia by empowering the multi-party Duma system. He wants Russians to remember that it was him, despite somewhat unchallenged rule, who has created the propitious conditions for another upward shift in Russian political system. On the foreign policy front, it would also be much harder for the West powers, namely UK and US, to accuse Russia of authoritarianism which is another boon in Vladimir’s eyes. That would be his legacy and as the old saying goes: the end justifies the means. Medvedev – long thought of as a potential successor – just didn’t have it and was far too associated with the past 20 years. Here is my favourite photograph of them together.
Beautiful.
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After Venezuela’s failed putsch, this was Trump’s second biggest mistake. It even shocked his own countrymen, let alone Asian and European partners. You can’t just go around and take people out like that. Not the 2nd most senior person in Iran – the Persian Lion General Qassem Soleimani. He’s become a martyr who unified the nation and who would revered even 1,000 years from now. There are certain rules to the game albeit recently the Russian President had complained about the lack of rules. Case in point. Cost/Benefit just doesn’t add up. Iran would now be more determined than ever to create a Shia crescent across Mesopotamia and the Levant. On the macro level, I foresee the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq as demanded by the Iraqi parliament. I see a gradual rapprochement between Sunni Gulf states and Iran which has already started in a somewhat clandestine fashion. Why? Saudis have realised that they cannot rely solely on US anymore.
As the world fretted about what would be Iran’s response and that we are about to witness the start of WW3 (I am serious, check twitter), I knew the response would be measured with the goal of de-escalation. They cannot start a proper war they know they cannot win There is a personal aspect to this. Trump individually made the decision to terminate General Qassem. I predict Iranians would – God forbid, of course – target his immediate family once he is no longer in office. What would hurt Trump more: US soldiers dying doing their duty or something happening to Ivanka/Don Jr? Exactly. Iran knows that. Revenge is a dish best served cold.