The Mueller report has finally landed this week. The verdict? Trump and his associates DID NOT collude with the Russian government. I think it would be pertinent to throw in some numbers, just for the emphasis of the scale of the investigation:
- 675 days is how long the investigation landed
- 19 lawyers and 40 FBI agents, intelligence analysts, forensic accountants assisted with the investigation
- 2,800 subpoenas at an average of 4 per day
- 500 search warrants executed
- 34 people were indicted including Trump’s personal lawyer who sang like a canary that forgot what the bullet looks like
- 13 evidence requests to foreign governments
It became swiftly clear that the report would not carry any new serious bombshells. If there were any then they would have been leaked, like the dripping, marinated juice off the meat that is about to get a good grilling, to work up an appetite. This hasn’t transpired, the narrative that Mueller runs a tight ship was always for the birds. Despite his best efforts, he had nothing.
I think it would be safe to conclude that the investigation was thorough and had one very clear brief: Destroy Trump and his project. Project that threatens or creates too much uncertainty for the current elites (business, political, media). The very idea of Trump being a Manchurian candidate was always preposterous. The man was in the public eye for most of his life. The intelligence and the security establishment would have checked him out long before he had even decided to run for the President. If he wanted to build Trump Plaza in Moscow then it was not because he found himself in a vice-like grip of the GRU but because he has global ambitions. Of course, Russians wanted Trump to win. Their aim is the creation of a multi-polar world. A world without a corrupt global policeman. Putin has spoken about it for years with increasing frequency. This geopolitical new balance of power can only be reached through close cooperation of great powers. Initial cooperation can either be loose or quite close to begin with. I predict that it would start with the former, given the current state of play, before transitioning into the latter. It would greatly depend on leaders in charge at the time but one thing is beyond doubt. This is now, bar major global conflict, is the new trajectory of development. Multi-polar world means hundreds in billions spent on education, science, aid instead on expensive war toys and military bases. Multi-polar world means the resolution of many crises that are long overdue: Korea, India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine conflict and the elevation & preservation of Africa. We need to eliminate negative, winner takes it all approach to competition between states and shift to a new paradigm. Idealistic, perhaps, but doable. We must try.
Bottom line:
What happens next? Knowing Trump, he would go after the initiators of the report. Do not expect this to die down any time soon. The victim must become a martyr and he is going to milk it to the max. Last obstacle to his support by the traditional GOP has now been removed. It is important to remember that for some it was an obstacle but for many just an excuse. They would all have to rally behind the President now. This in turn greatly increases the chances of his re-election. In fact, Trump 2020 is a terrific bet. I think Trump would wait until his second term to make any inroads with Russia. The remains of this term would be focused on the economy and addressing trade imbalances with China and EU. He will work on his legacy in 2020-2024. Will he be the one to truly change the world remains to be seen…