USA Election 2020:
Despite trailing in the polls I still expect the incumbent to take it. The Debates would make or break Biden and seeing how Trump performed last time around against an arguably more formidable opponent, I expect him to wipe the floor with Sleepy Joe. Many are agreeing that Biden is a not a strong candidate but arguing that he doesn’t have to be. Two things will be on the ballot: Trump and anti-Trump. They are expecting that their Anyone But Trump strategy would prevail but they are forgetting something. It is not just about Trump – classically not a particularly strong candidate either – it never was. The Deplorables & Co had voted for Trump and will do so again for one very prosaic and familiar reason: anyone but you…
Trump Clan:
Trump clan is here to stay. It is far more powerful and diverse in its skill set than Clintons or Obamas. I see at least two people running for President after Donald Trump retires or defeated. Don Jr and Ivanka – the former being a proper chip off the old block. He would appeal to Trump’s current electorate much more successfully. He is one of them. Ivanka, being slightly more woke, would in turn try to bridge the gap between the warring parties which, given the wider culture wars, is impossible and it would affect her chances considerably. And just wait till Barron grows up. That guy is already a star and a shoe-in for the election bid at some point in the future. Trumps are here to stay pretty much until the end of the century.
USA Culture Wars:
They are here to stay and they will stay until the economic balance/fairness is restored to the nation. Something that is impossible under current hard capitalist model. The model where it is 99% vs 1%. In fact, it will only get worse and may lead to the fragmentation of the nation. I see California and Texas breaking away and causing a massive crisis of confidence. Most great empires, from Assyrians to Mongols, from Russian Empire to the Great Mughals, fell apart due to internal strife and division. Two nuclear powered Americas is a strong possibility.
UK GE 2024:
Like Atlas Boris will carry the fall-out from Brexit/Covid/Economy on his shoulders for as long as he can before he is replaced by the Tory establishment by the squeaky clean, BAME candidate and furlough hero Rishi Sunak. So simple, so effective. Labour would get pulverised at the GE 2024 (they won’t get more 33%) and would implode into non-existence. This would lead to the creation of Labour Left party – possibly with Corbyn as the honourary Chairman – and Labour Right led by the new breed with Tony Blair as the nominal Holy Roman Emperor.
Brexit No Deal Probability:
I have a misfortune of finishing this prediction after Brandon Lewis shocked the House of Commons indicating that Conservative government was prepared to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and break international law if they failed to get a deal with EU. I could have told you that before he made that statement. Conservatives were prepared to sign anything to get WA over the line in full knowledge that they can do whatever they want once they secure the majority in the subsequent election. It was an ace hidden very deep up their sleeve and now it has made it not so unexpected appearance. UK still wants a deal, of course, but on the terms which they regard as fair. EU bullying had to be brought to a screeching halt. It was finally time for Boris led Brits to turn the tables of blackmail at the 11th hour. EU appears visibly stunned as they have been misreading UK for some time. Boris and Cumming terror duo can afford it. According to the latest polling, Cons have dug in at around 40%-45% mark and refuse to be dislodged no matter what’s the bad news. Red wall will stay with them for as long as there is a perception that Brexit is being delivered. Of course, yours truly was predicting this no-deal outcome from Day 1. Rationale? Both sides are full of hubris and incompetence thus no-deal was always going to be the likeliest scenario. Covid related economic carnage made it even more likely. What was scary last year in terms of economic fall-out seems like peanuts now. Project Fear beaten by Project Apocalypse Now. Sometimes 2+2 is just four.
Scottish Independence:
Scottish independence is inevitable. That snowball cannot be stopped anymore and it will accelerate further as culture wars (nationalism comes under this) rage in the United Kingdom. I expect Scotland to go independent by 2030. Things will develop fast in this long-running opera. Even with the full-on Project Fear rolled out, I expect 180 reversal on the last result. 55/45 for the Yes vote. It has now become a matter of when and both sides know it.
United Ireland:
United Ireland will happen albeit at a slower pace than Scotland. Scotland voting to leave will accelerate calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland (I believe it’s in the Good Friday Agreement already). It will be a close vote but as The Centre (Westminster) gets weaker, pro-independecve movement on the priphery will get stronger. I expect Wales to stay integrated with England.
Putin Retirement
Following recent constitutional amendments, Vladimir Putin can go for two extra terms: 2024-2030 and 2030- 2036. His current term expires in 2024. My prediction is that he will leave after 2030 thus going for one additional term instead of the allowed two. Rationale: Putin cares about history. He had already restored law and order, economy and Russia’s international prestige. His legacy as one of the Greatest Russians of all time is already secure and he knows it. However, two existential knots remain untied: Ukraine and Belarus. His dream is to reunify Slavic brotherly nations of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus into one entity: Neo-Kievan Rus. He still clearly has plenty of energy and the current geopolitical conditions could not be more propitious to achieve his ultimate ambition. Ukraine – in economic free fall – may not fragment by 2030 but it might federalize by that date. Federal Ukraine is what Putin wants as it would be much easier to deal with and influence. Due to the prevalent nationalist element, things will take some time to get back to normal and the road ahead will be bumpy. In many ways, a new head of state – not the current one who’s burdened with so much baggage – could be the Alexander who decisively cuts the Pontic knot. Belarus, on the other hand, is far more predictable and doable. Despite decades of flirting, Lukashenko is now dead to the West following the disputed presidential elections and the subsequent violence. Batka, as he’s affectionately known, now fully relies on the Russian Big Brother – as he likes to call Russia in the hour of need – for his survival. Lukashenko knows that his current term is probably his last and he might not even survive it. This makes his very pliable. A flurry of recent visits by the Russian ministers and generals indicate that the Union State process, after years of procrastination, has commenced in earnest. Belarus should be integrated with Russia by 2030 in one form or another. Putin would be more than happy with that and will leave on a high after 30 years in power. And having sown the seeds of Ukrainian federalism, it would be up to his successor to bring the Ukraine home to make Russia Great Again. Putin will supervise from the shadows.
Nord Stream II:
The project will go ahead. If it doesn’t then Germany’s reputation would be tatters. Recent German attempts to buy off the US demonstrate that the Germans won’t just roll over. With the full support in Bundestag of Die Linke, AFD and strong backing of SDP, I expect common sense to prevail. Even Merkel’s CDU/CSU alliance is divided on the issue. Germany hasn’t been this brave with its American Big Brother for many decades and sometimes one needs to make a stand and show that they are not pushovers. Failure to do so could also be catastrophic domestically. Nord Stream II could be that chance. Trump’s presidency and his potential re-election would help NS2. Should Biden prevail, then risk of cancellation would increase but I still expected it to go ahead. Too much political, reputational and financial capital has been expended for it to fail.