Weeks after the actual voting day, the most surreal election in US history finally came to an end. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232. A mirror reversal of 2016 result. It was the highest vote turnout since 1900 as Sleepy Joe amassed 81m votes to Trump’s 74m. Remarkable outcome in many ways. Both tallies made absolute minced meat out of previous record held by Barack Obama (69m votes) amid widespread allegations of vote rigging. Incredibly, despite a chasm of 7m in the popular vote, Trump was three states and about 100,000 votes away from winning the White House again. He was expected to win two of those states – Arizona and Georgia. It was mighty close. Trump’s team challenged the official result time and again but to no avail. Only on the 20th of January, Joe Biden’s inauguration day, could the Washington establishment breathe a deep sigh of relief. So great was the fear of the man and the aura of unpredictability that surrounds him that even the most vehement anti-Trumpers were fearing some final killer twist that was promised but never actually materialised in the end. Pre-election projections predicted a resounding repudiation of Trump at the ballot box, which was surely music to the ears of Democrats, Corporate America, European Union, China and even many in the GOP. They certainly did not expect him to improve on his 2016 election victory by acquiring 10m extra votes and to making further inroads into Hispanic/Black voting communities. The mythical beast was indeed defeated but not slain as Trump, gravely wounded but still breathing fire, retreated to his Florida lair to regain his strength and focus.
Now that the result is done and dusted, it is time to evaluate Mr Trump’s stay in office. It was a mixed bag, and these are the highlights:
- Trump did not start any new wars and tried to bring American troops home as he promised (a trend already reversed by his successor Joe Biden). This alone makes his Presidency a success.
- He tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to patch things up with Russia but his best efforts were thwarted by the Russia Hoax investigation. The infamous dossier that triggered the whole “witch-hunt” was commissioned by none other than his Democratic rival Hilary Clinton and concocted by the former MI6 operative David Steele who used recycled Kremlin gossip provided by one of his staffers. Just pause for a second and think about that. In the end, Trump was forced to slap more sanctions on Russia than any other President before him. He tried.
- He made wrong calls on Iran and Venezuela. It was a borderline terrorist act to assassinate General Soleimani – pretty much a second/third person in the country and commander of Quds – and vilify Iran in general. This was done to placate Israel and the Gulf State countries. The former sees Iran as an existential threat and the latter want to prevent a Persian Shia crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Nothing new here as Sunnis vs Shia centuries long struggle continues unabated. As for Venezuela, with its largest oil reserves in the world, it has long been a propaganda target for the US aiming to keep its backyard ideologically and politically submissive. Heavy sanctions, with a good dose of internal mismanagement, affect common Venezuelans first and foremost.
- Trump was also completely out of step with the current environmental agenda as jobs, jobs, jobs became far more important than humanity’s medium to long term future. With many of his supporters in key states dependent on the energy sector and creation of new pipelines, this was always going to go one way but it was short-sighted. Ridiculing wind and solar energy is not what the young generation wants to hear. Easy, low hanging plus turned into a big minus.
- Finally, Trump would have still been easily re-elected – even the most virulently anti-Trump media conceded it was the likeliest outcome – but he did not foresee the tsunami that was Covid-19 virus. Questioning the pandemic, wearing of masks and off the cuff remarks cost him dear in the end. This was the time to play it safe and he did not. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back. He did deliver on vaccines as promised but by this point the message was too muddled and confusing. Speak of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.
Conclusion:
Trump has managed to shatter the political landscape of the United States. The country is bitterly and almost irreversibly divided. For all his attacks on conniving socialists, the new paradigm that emerged will pit traditionalists against progressive liberals. It is now a global trend. Neither side will back down. Trump, despite his assurances to do so, did not drain the swamp but he managed to turn it inside out. The storming of the Capitol by an over-excited Trump crowd, which left Senators and Congressmen cowering inside, led to his ban from all media platforms for incitement. This raises serious questions about the freedom of speech in the country and would only lead to further division. Muzzling of the incumbent President was truly something else and the speed of it was something to behold. Trump was impeached, and acquitted, for the unprecedented second time but he triumphed in one aspect. He owns the Grand Old Party now. The Bogey Man is defeated for now but who can bet against the sequel?