Global Britain & Brexit

Cassandra Looks Forward

Cassandra Looks Forward

gittoplo

USA Election 2020:

Despite trailing in the polls I still expect the incumbent to take it. The Debates would make or break Biden and seeing how Trump performed last time around against an arguably more formidable opponent, I expect him to wipe the floor with Sleepy Joe. Many are agreeing that Biden is a not a strong candidate but arguing that he doesn’t have to be. Two things will be on the ballot: Trump and anti-Trump. They are expecting that their Anyone But Trump strategy would prevail but they are forgetting something. It is not just about Trump – classically not a particularly strong candidate either – it never was. The Deplorables & Co had voted for Trump and will do so again for one very prosaic and familiar reason: anyone but you…

Trump Clan:

Trump clan is here to stay. It is far more powerful and diverse in its skill set than Clintons or Obamas. I see at least two people running for President after Donald Trump retires or defeated. Don Jr and Ivanka – the former being a proper chip off the old block. He would appeal to Trump’s current electorate much more successfully. He is one of them. Ivanka, being slightly more woke, would in turn try to bridge the gap between the warring parties which, given the wider culture wars, is impossible and it would affect her chances considerably. And just wait till Barron grows up. That guy is already a star and a shoe-in for the election bid at some point in the future. Trumps are here to stay pretty much until the end of the century.

USA Culture Wars:

They are here to stay and they will stay until the economic balance/fairness is restored to the nation. Something that is impossible under current hard capitalist model. The model where it is 99% vs 1%.  In fact, it will only get worse and may lead to the fragmentation of the nation. I see California and Texas breaking away and causing a massive crisis of confidence. Most great empires, from Assyrians to Mongols, from Russian Empire to the Great Mughals, fell apart due to internal strife and division. Two nuclear powered Americas is a strong possibility.

UK GE 2024:

Like Atlas Boris will carry the fall-out from Brexit/Covid/Economy on his shoulders for as long as he can before he is replaced by the Tory establishment by the squeaky clean, BAME candidate and furlough hero Rishi Sunak. So simple, so effective. Labour would get pulverised at the GE 2024 (they won’t get more 33%) and would implode into non-existence. This would lead to the creation of Labour Left party – possibly with Corbyn as the honourary Chairman – and Labour Right led by the new breed with Tony Blair as the nominal Holy Roman Emperor.

Brexit No Deal Probability:

I have a misfortune of finishing this prediction after Brandon Lewis shocked the House of Commons indicating that Conservative government was prepared to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and break international law if they failed to get a deal with EU. I could have told you that before he made that statement. Conservatives were prepared to sign anything to get WA over the line in full knowledge that they can do whatever they want once they secure the majority in the subsequent election. It was an ace hidden very deep up their sleeve and now it has made it not so unexpected appearance. UK still wants a deal, of course, but on the terms which they regard as fair. EU bullying had to be brought to a screeching halt. It was finally time for Boris led Brits to turn the tables of blackmail at the 11th hour. EU appears visibly stunned as they have been misreading UK for some time. Boris and Cumming terror duo can afford it. According to the latest polling, Cons have dug in at around 40%-45% mark and refuse to be dislodged no matter what’s the bad news. Red wall will stay with them for as long as there is a perception that Brexit is being delivered. Of course, yours truly was predicting this no-deal outcome from Day 1. Rationale? Both sides are full of hubris and incompetence thus no-deal was always going to be the likeliest scenario. Covid related economic carnage made it even more likely. What was scary last year in terms of economic fall-out seems like peanuts now. Project Fear beaten by Project Apocalypse Now. Sometimes 2+2 is just four.

Scottish Independence:

Scottish independence is inevitable. That snowball cannot be stopped anymore and it will accelerate further as culture wars (nationalism comes under this) rage in the United Kingdom. I expect Scotland to go independent by 2030. Things will develop fast in this long-running opera. Even with the full-on Project Fear rolled out, I expect 180 reversal on the last result. 55/45 for the Yes vote. It has now become a matter of when and both sides know it.

United Ireland:

United Ireland will happen albeit at a slower pace than Scotland. Scotland voting to leave will accelerate calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland (I believe it’s in the Good Friday Agreement already). It will be a close vote but as The Centre (Westminster) gets weaker, pro-independecve movement on the priphery will get stronger. I expect Wales to stay integrated with England.

Putin Retirement 

Following recent constitutional amendments, Vladimir Putin can go for two extra terms: 2024-2030 and 2030- 2036. His current term expires in 2024. My prediction is that he will leave after 2030 thus going for one additional term instead of the allowed two. Rationale: Putin cares about history. He had already restored law and order, economy and Russia’s international prestige. His legacy as one of the Greatest Russians of all time is already secure and he knows it. However, two existential knots remain untied: Ukraine and Belarus. His dream is to reunify Slavic brotherly nations of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus into one entity: Neo-Kievan Rus. He still clearly has plenty of energy and the current geopolitical conditions could not be more propitious to achieve his ultimate ambition. Ukraine – in economic free fall – may not fragment by 2030 but it might federalize by that date. Federal Ukraine is what Putin wants as it would be much easier to deal with and influence. Due to the prevalent nationalist element, things will take some time to get back to normal and the road ahead will be bumpy. In many ways, a new head of state – not the current one who’s burdened with so much baggage – could be the Alexander who decisively cuts the Pontic knot. Belarus, on the other hand, is far more predictable and doable. Despite decades of flirting, Lukashenko is now dead to the West following the disputed presidential elections and the subsequent violence. Batka, as he’s affectionately known, now fully relies on the Russian Big Brother – as he likes to call Russia in the hour of need – for his survival. Lukashenko knows that his current term is probably his last and he might not even survive it. This makes his very pliable. A flurry of recent visits by the Russian ministers and generals indicate that the Union State process, after years of procrastination, has commenced in earnest. Belarus should be integrated with Russia by 2030 in one form or another. Putin would be more than happy with that and will leave on a high after 30 years in power. And having sown the seeds of Ukrainian federalism, it would be up to his successor to bring the Ukraine home to make Russia Great Again. Putin will supervise from the shadows.

Nord Stream II:

The project will go ahead. If it doesn’t then Germany’s reputation would be tatters. Recent German attempts to buy off the US demonstrate that the Germans won’t just roll over. With the full support in Bundestag of Die Linke, AFD and strong backing of SDP, I expect common sense to prevail. Even Merkel’s CDU/CSU alliance is divided on the issue. Germany hasn’t been this brave with its American Big Brother for many decades and sometimes one needs to make a stand and show that they are not pushovers. Failure to do so could also be catastrophic domestically. Nord Stream II could be that chance. Trump’s presidency and his potential re-election would help NS2. Should Biden prevail, then risk of cancellation would increase but I still expected it to go ahead. Too much political, reputational and financial capital has been expended for it to fail.

 

 

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Young & Old United: YOU Movement UK

Young & Old United: YOU Movement UK

gittoplo

With Labour party about to reacquaint itself permanently with abyss – should be a great watch – and GG’s Workers Party still fighting the won Brexit battle, I think the time is right for a new movement that will change the face of Britain and, hopefully, act as a catalyst to start a wider global change. I like George and considered joining his new venture but there are several issues and they need to be addressed for they are not stand-alone. First, the name – it’s a little 1920s. That time has passed. Momentum, for example, has a nice and positive ring to it. Workers Party sounds too revolutionary and socialist and may put off a lot of people who might subconsciously agree with socialist policies but have a bad association that comes with the actual name. That brings us to the second point, a new party cannot be overtly confined to one ideology: communists, liberals, socialists, conservatives etc. That time has also passed. It should have socialist policies – for this is what we need right now – but we shouldn’t politicise it. It will be tough but it has to happen. It must have the best of all worlds. Finally, Workers Party makes another mistake but attaching itself to Brexit. I am a committed Brexiteer but that battle has been fought and won. We need to move on. Their heart is in the right place but it requires some serious PR surgery. Even George – a legend in many ways – needs to stop fronting the vanguard. Grey cardinal yes, but he fought too many battles and got too many scars and too much baggage as a result. Sorry mate.

With all this in mind, I want to start a new movement called Young & Old United: YOU Movement – subject to better suggestions. First, the plan is to win in UK and help nurture YOU movements in other countries. In Europe to begin with, then US and then the rest. Aim: loosely unified global political system focused on peace, cooperation and sustainability. Each country would be a little bit different (people are different) but I expect education system (preparation of humans for life) to be very similar. This is its political manifesto – a work in progress – for the XXI century:

NB: If you are reading this, approve and would like to participate then please get in touch on twitter. 

Economy:

  • Main sectors: Services (Finance, Accounting, Law), Sustainable Energy (one of two core industries: self-sufficiency), Sustainable Agriculture (another core industry: self-sufficiency in basic foods: grains and meat), Media (comparative advantage: cinema, theater, music) that ties up with strong Tourism sector. Finally, Technology (aim: world capital of VC and entrepreneurship).
  • Bottom line here: in a time of great crisis, there must be home produced food and electricity to feed and power our country in case all supply chains fail.
  • Full exit from carbon and non-progressive sectors: chemical, automotive, oil & gas
  • Green Industrial Strategy
  • Universal Basic Income
  • Gradual Wealth Taxation to bring some sense of fairness and balance to Project UK
  • Grand Ambition: Britain to become The Brain Center of the world. The new Rome. The new Babylon.

Foreign Policy:

  • Neutrality (time to go the Swiss way, save money on nukes, have UK removed as a potential nuclear target and be the first great power to retire)
  • Soft power champion (diplomacy, arts, education, innovation)
  • Leave NATO and campaign for its dismantlement: ++with RUS & China (great powers)
  • Act as bridge between US and Europe; Europe and Asia through its cultural diversity

Education:

  • Complete overhaul of subjects studied
  • Abolition of private schools and introduction of free universal education
  • Focus on: Practical maths, English (mind), English Literature (mind), History (purpose), Languages (, PE (health+teamwork)
  • Introduce cinema and music education: so people know who Antonioni/Bach are. Something the overwhelming majority won’t get at home. The Foundation knowledge. Not lectures but actual film viewing and listen to music for 20-30 minutes straight. Shape the mind, make it more cultural from an early age.
  • Altruism & Empathy. Teach students empathy from Year One: Towards animals (through local animal shelter visits, voluntary in-school  and other activities) and fellow human beings (team-work, selflessness – in combination with PE classes). Community spirit nurtured from day one. Future criminals and psychopaths are formed in schools – cut it at its root.
  • Reduced burden on teachers: no homework of any kind and increased pay. We must attract best minds here. Make the profession truly privileged. For teachers, in essence, will become second parents.
  • A standard UK graduate: Mathematically literate, knows native language well (both written and spoken), knows history of its country and its interactions with the world, fit/flexible/strong (higher productivity, less burden on NHS, increased happiness), fluent in one additional language (Chinese, Indian, Arabic, Spanish – to cover all continents), cultural (at ease with pillars of global culture) and, most importantly, empathetic/altruistic – (from young age, love for animals, environment and fellow humans will be drilled into students). All other countries will strive to copy our system. We will create the new norm.
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New Labour Dawn & Political Reformation

New Labour Dawn & Political Reformation

gittoplo

On the 4th of April, Sir Keir Stammer had become the Labour leader with 56% of the vote. Divided Left also managed to lose the Deputy role  to Angela “Have you heard my story?” Rayner and the NEC election. Left’s candidate Rebecca Long Bailey – who did OK in my opinion – came a distant second and Richard Burgon – a torchbearer for socialism to many – a distant third, having finished behind Rayner and vacuous Ms Khan in the Deputy Leader elections despite having the best campaign out of all candidates. About 25%-30% voted for RLB/Burgon and that’s the real state of play.

As far as the fiascoes go, it is a pretty epic one. Not winning the GE was one thing, not to use the party machinery to ensure a smooth transition of power is another. Criminal negligence. It must also be said that the leadership election result was an emphatic condemnation of John McDonald (still my hero but truth must be told) and those who kissed Corbyn on the cheek only to stab him in the back at the same time. Becky was the wrong choice, John, and so was getting behind Stammer and his election winning Brexit strategy. A supremely talented politician unable to see a bigger picture but I digress. Labour Leaks document going around laid bare how the party’s own bureaucracy tried to undermine Corbyn during GE 2017. They wanted Labour to crash and burn with the sole aim of excising socialism once and for all. With comrades like these who need enemies? These people could barely disguise their hatred and bile in public so can you imagine what was happening behind the scenes? Well, now we can. I just wonder what the OG Keir would have made of it.

The party is rotten through and through. A weird combination of the Gordian knot and the Augean stables. This makes the way forward surprisingly clear. The time has come for a Political Reformation. Just like the Catholic Church/Habsburgs had no choice but to accede to other ways of worship – albeit after a bloody and disastrous Thirty Years War – so the future democratic socialists must accept that the Labour party is not the medium to achieve our desired utopia. One does not need the Catholic Church to worship God and in the same vein one doesn’t need this grotesque Labour party to achieve socialism. Time for a new movement and party. Free of illegal wars and decades-long infighting baggage, free of recent austerity shade and the media-friendly neoliberal fifth column. Many downbeat and downcast Corbynites may say: there is only so much of my life I’m willing and able to devote to failed socialist projects or in what way is the ground more fertile for a new socialist party than it was for Respect, TUSC etc? But I say to this: how did Syriza, Five Star, Podemos, En Marche do it? Different times, different circumstances, different people involved. And of course it would take time, radical agenda, charismatic leadership and balls but if the vision is great enough then people of all persuasions would follow. The future is no longer about left and right. It is about right and wrong. We must get our world – yes the whole thing – as close to the Kingdom of Heaven as possible. For a little taste of things to come: we now have a Shadow Cabinet with Lisa Nandy as our Foreign Secretary, with many distinguished Corbyn bashers, who cost Labour the election in 2017, in prominent positions. Even that orangutan Jess Phillips made the cut but not the dashing and supremely competent triumvirate of Gardiner/Lavery/Trickett. Unity indeed.

The fate of many declining socialist European parties awaits. Next election would be to a large extent about Brexit again and its delivery unless Covid-19 takes over in earnest. Sir Stammer’s idiotic, catastrophic, defeatist Brexit policy will long live in the memory of voters and in the annals of history. I can see Tory attack lines in 2024 already. Another easy victory. No wonder The Spectator, Sky News, Osborne et al are ecstatic. Socialist threat had been torpedoed but then what is the point of the Labour party if not delivering workable socialism? It’ over. Basta. Fininto. Kaput. Time for a Political Reformation. Time for something new. Time to think big. Time for Carpe Diem. I left and cut up my membership card as soon as the penny dropped on the 4th of April. The day the Labour party died.

 

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Maltese Mafia & Modern Day Socialists, German SPD Left wing & Election Prediction

Maltese Mafia & Modern Day Socialists, German SPD Left wing & Election Prediction

gittoplo

Maltese PM Joseph Muscat – Honorary Knight Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George no less – has announced that he is stepping down in Jan 2020. This is due to his handling of the investigation into the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia. EU special envoy to Malta, Sophie Veld, said that trust between Malta and the EU had been damaged and that PM Muscat has done very little to ameliorate the situation. This only means one thing – amidst the current media blackout surrounding the situation – that he and his crony administration are dodgy as hell. Want to buy Maltese, aka EU, passport? No problem. $1,000,000 pls. What a fantastically renewable model! Events in Malta bear a striking resemblance to what happened in Slovakia and their PM Fico. Luckily, mass outrage has forced both of these money enthusiasts out but the fact remains: journalists investigating corruption at the highest level are being murdered in EU member states.

But there is more. Who are the patrons, consiglieres and other fwends of PM Muscat? You will never guess. The New Labour Party Massive: Tony Blair (Muscat was once proudly anointed as Mr Blair’s Mini-Me and latches on to his every word), Alastair Campbell (Mr Campbell said he would be using his recent trip to advise Mr Muscat who was ‘a bit corrupt’ but ‘no murderer’. Lovely). And let us not forget Mr Iain McNicol, now of McNicol Consulting, who lied about his trips to Malta. Said he was on holiday with his son while in reality was meeting Government ministers. Oh dear! How did socialism metamorphose from Marx/Engels/Lenin to Blair/Campbell/McNicol? 

 

 

Finally, Germany gets on with the programme. Labour’s equivalent in Germany, the SPD, has finally elected a duo of true socialists – Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken. Decimated by propping up German Tories, the CDU-CSU, by adherence to neoliberalism (and balanced budgets). This is important. Corbyn’s Labour winning the election is not enough. The tax dodgers and the big money are already threatening to leave our shores if the Real Change agenda is implemented. But where would they go? Not France, if future President Melenchon or Le Pen have their way. Not Italy, with 5-Star more than happy to follow the lead of its European left wingers. Even right-wing Lega Nord would not provide succour the mega-rich are looking for. Spain? What with prodigal Socialists doing deals with Podemos? And that’s just the start. That left Germany and now this… It won’t be easy but SPD, after years in the wilderness, are ready to enter the political purgatory and cleans their sins. Once they recover, in the next few years, I can see them joining forces with Die Linke and the Greens. And that’s Germany in the bag. Japan and Hong Kong are not exactly the most popular destinations, due to distance and cultural differences. This leaves the mothership…

 

 

The clouds are gathering in the US as well. Sanders and Warren – should either of them become the President – are not going to be their buddies. With their wealth taxation plans hanging like a Damocles Sword over the American One Percent. I also expect Tulsi Gabbard – the dark horse of the race – to do the right thing. USA would take some time – as it takes time to clean the Augean stables – but the direction of travel would be  determined and clear.

So where would they go and for how long? UK, even under socialism, is still a magnet for the rich Russians, Asians and other Europeans. It is a hollow threat. As the saying goes, better the devil you know. Pay your fair share and sleep well at night. And UK, once again, would be in the vanguard of global change.

 

 

The argument that Labour are out of it and are unelectable is for the birds. This narrative had some potency pre-2017 but by achieving 40% – despite a barrage of attack from media, big business and even a good bulk of his own MPs – Corbyn’s Labour shattered that pseudo-construct. We all have issues with cognitive dissonance, but we must remain fair. 40% was an astounding result. Corbyn proved to be very competitive and a master campaigner. To rule him out the second time – this time pre-2019 GE and post-40% – is just folly. Variables change, such is their function, but the fundamentals do not. GE 2017 activated a two party system in the UK and it is not leaving anytime soon. Lib Dems led by woeful and out-of-depth Swinson are freefalling and hemorrhaging Remain votes to Labour. There are still two weeks to go and I expect the polls to tighten even further.

 My prediction, Labour would stop just short of 40% and would form a Coalition government with SNP by promising them a 2nd referendum in 2022. Following a proposed investment of almost £70bn – showing that Scotland matters – and a good campaign, I expect Remain to prevail over Leave in Scotland by the ironic 52-48 margin.

 

Spider Hale, Greedy Bidens and Glorious Leaders of our Age

gittoplo

Rejoice! Gina Miller and her possy managed to defeat British democracy once again. Through no little help of the UK Supreme Court. One might argue what makes it Supreme in the first place but that’s a topic for another conversation. Given the unanimous 11-0 judgement – despite many expecting a split vote – one would have thought it was a clear cut case but, of course, it wasn’t. Highest court in England & Wales unanimously thought otherwise. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox thought otherwise. Unanimous? My, my – the establishment pulled an extra shift on that occasion. The judgement was accepted for the court is supreme and its judgement, by inference, is unbiased, non-partisan and final. Or is it? This week Baroness Hale, who presided over the Supreme Court’s decision, was pictured giving a talk which she started with the girl swot analogy – used by PM Johnson to refer to David Cameron. Lady Hale – the embodiment of balance, justice and unbiasedness – clearly took the comment too close to heart for she was that girl swot and proud of it. And she should be but as long as it doesn’t impair her judgement. On a screen behind her one can observe the topic of the talk – Spider woman takes down Hulk: Viewers transfixed by judge’s brooch as ruling crushes PM. Spiderwoman is Hale – she wore a massive spider brooch when she delivered the verdict – and PM Johnson is the self-proclaimed Hulk. She’s clearly enjoying the aftermath.  Enjoying the attention, enjoying being the latest symbol  of girl power and enjoyed, at the time, rubbing it in PM’s face. How else to interpret the visuals provided by my eyecicles? Human after all. Another conclusion beckons: we do not live in a democracy. What’s democratic about constitutional monarchy? What’s democratic about FPTP electoral system? And now we scale new heights, what’s democratic about not respecting once-in-a-generation referendum results?

 

 

 

Poor Trump. The guy just can’t catch a break. Just when he thought he was out, they pulled him back in. Fresh off the hoax that was Russiagate, we enter the Ukrainegate. One might laugh but the Democrats have actually started the impeachment procedure against him. He is likely to be impeached by the Democrat-controlled Congress but it is unlikely to pass the Republican-controlled Senate which would also require 2/3 majority. But what is Ukrainegate and how serious is it? The charge is that President Trump tried to lean on President Zelensky during a phone call  to investigate the Biden family. Biden family? What have they got to do with Ukraine? Well, during his tenure as VP, Biden Sr was effectively supervising Ukraine and there was an filmed incident on where he threatened to withhold a billion dollars in aid if the Ukrainian authorities failed to sack the current Attorney General Victor Shokin. Immediately. Apparently, his plane was leaving in one hour so chop chop. Mr Shokin – shock, horror – was promptly sacked. Flagrant interference in judicial affairs of another country is one thing but there is more to the story. It turns out that Biden Jr was appointed to the Board of Directors of a natural gas company called Burisma –   a company of very questionable reputation – which Mr Shokin happened to be investigating. Number of questions spring to mind? What does Biden Jr has to do with Ukraine? Nothing. Has he got any experience in natural gas industry? No. So how on Earth did he end up on the Board unless it was a favour for his Dad? Is Trump wrong to ask for this to be looked into? What’s more important: truth or form? How else would the Western word know about it if not for Trump and let alone do something about it? People in Ukraine are pretty clear on what went down but are now caught between a Republican Scylla and the Democratic Harybda. Impossible to please both.

In the latest development, when asked if he knows anything about his son dealings with Burisma, Biden Sr answered: never. Well, here is a resurfaced picture of Biden Sr., Biden Jr and a Burisma executive (far left). What possibly could have they discussed? I know, I know. Girls gotta eat.

 

A few words about the unscrupulous careerist with a charming smile, namely Rory Stewart. The entitlement must run in his veins. Having failed to become a Conservative leader – I mean he has been an MP for such a long time – Rory has decided today to run for London Mayor as independent. A man in pursuit of glory. What is his Mount of Everest? Staying in EU, of course. Oh, the lofty ambitions. The man reminds me of Steerpike. Let’s hope for a more cheerful ending. Get ready for the SmugBowl 2020 – Selfie Sadiq vs Walking Rory.

 

Someone…kill me…

 

 

Elections, Kim and Gavin

gittoplo

A comedian becomes a President of Ukraine by trouncing hapless Poroshenko at the polls by a 50% margin. The result is an emphatic condemnation of President Poroshenko himself and the myriad of his controversial and populist policies: economy is in tatters, civil war in the east goes on unabated, new societal splits were created by his assault on the official church of Ukraine and the status of the Russian language – most commonly spoken tongue in the country. Poroshenko was the darling of the EU and the US although the shine has somewhat markedly dimmed with the passage of time. The gamble, long in preparation, was made to drive a wedge between the two nations which many Russians and Ukrainians consider to be the same people harking back to Kievan Rus times in the 11th century. They have thrown a lot of money and political capital behind Poroshenko in the last 5 years. Thus their shock at the result and the rush to build bridges with newly elected President Ze. If the latter were to reverse the course undertaken in the past 5 years then it would be a total fiasco of the US and to lesser extent EU foreign policy. At the end of the day, visa free travel and association agreement looked great on paper but didn’t bring mirth or prosperity to the disenchanted populace. Certainly worth getting a macroeconomic snapshot which doesn’t paint a pretty picture: nominal GDP down from $183bn to $130bn, GDP per capita went from $4,030 to even paltrier $2,656, debt-to-GDP ratio went from 40% to 60% having reached 81% in 2016. Ukraine is a patient on IMF life support at the moment. Things some people do for the greater cause at the expense of millions… This dire economic landscape comes with a twist: according to UkrStat (the State Statistics Service of Ukraine), the Russian Federation became the largest investor in Ukraine’s economy in 2018. Go figure. President Ze is somewhat of a wildcard, as in he can go two ways. If he maintains the current course, a serious escalation with Russia beckons. Once Russia realizes that the current trajectory of travel is here to stay then they will activate their efforts at undermining Ukraine. They see NATO aspirations of a certain stratum of Ukrainian political elites/society as an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs. Would US like it if Russians started building military bases in Mexico or Canada? No. It goes both ways. At the moment, Putin still harbours hope that the new leader would kick start a more balanced approach to Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy. Ukraine, by itself only constituting a few regions historically, has been a battlefield for Russia, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Sweden, Ottoman Empire for many centuries. In my humble opinion, federalization and neutrality is the best way forward that takes into account Ukraine’s diverse population, geographic location, history and economic structure. Whether common sense takes hold is another matter. Personally, I predict a dangerous escalation before a screeching 180. Brinkmanship is the word of the day.

Some were bemused by Kim’s visit and meeting with Putin in Vladivostok, Russia. Allow me to elaborate: as I have written before, Kim is very keen on striking a deal and setting North Korea on a new path to prosperity and harmony with its neighbors. China, Russia, South Korea and the region in general desire the same. It is a win-win for everyone. There is a lot of economic potential ready to be unlocked, especially once the Korean reunification takes place, and I am sure no one in the region enjoys watching North Korean’s nuclear sabre rattling which they would like to stop. This plays handsomely into the general narrative of the approaching Asian Age. There is, of course, an elephant in the room, luckily, a benevolent elephant who is keen on doing a deal. It’s his thing, you know. In many ways, the current chronology of the events bears a striking resemblance to the Star wars Trilogy. Singapore summit brought New Hope. Then we had witnessed how Empire Strikes Back in Hanoi, Vietnam. Elated by the progress and good will of the first summit, Trump pushed too far. Kim was ready to settle for 60/40 or perhaps even 70/30 in US favour but Trump wanted more. He wanted to see, feeling greater need for a deal from the Korean side, how much he can push. He miscalculated but not by much. Kim is a proud person and the visuals (how things are being perceived) matter but he would have also felt the chill of a potential failure because then what? That brings us to the third summit, yet to take place but currently being discussed by both parties. Why would the third time be any different? Both sides, having learned the lessons from the second meeting, would be in prime position to strike a deal. We do not have infinite turns and it is important not to lose the positive momentum. Kim went to Russia to be briefed by Vladimir Putin. Since both parties have the same geopolitical aims, Kim wanted his advice on how to deal with Trump and the United States. The advice that Kim would not have been able to get anywhere else. Or trust, for that matter. Watch the space. I have a feeling, that in the next installment, The Return of the Deal, the world would be third time lucky.

Spare a thought for the former Defence Secretary and fireplace salesperson Mr Gavin Williamson. Ignominious end for a political amateur who in a short period of time managed to tell Russia to “shut up and go away”, sent British aircraft carrier to the South China Sea to teach nuclear powered and most populous nation in the world a lesson and arrogantly dismissive of his own now former boss: “ I made her, I’ll break her”. Yesterday he was fired for being a mole, leaking from the holy of holies – the NSC meeting. With his political career in tatters, I can only hope his children can forgive him.

Don Trump – Undercover Leftie and why the hate?

Don Trump – Undercover Leftie and why the hate?

gittoplo

 

For years if not decades, socialists and other variations of the left, opposed three following concepts. They marched. They smashed. They howled at the moon. All to no avail.

TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. A brief description of Socialist case against can be found here: https://waronwant.org/what-ttip:

Excerpt: TTIP is a major new deal being negotiated behind closed doors between the EU and USA. It will cost at least 1 million jobs, undermine our most treasured public services, lead to a ‘race to the bottom’ in food, environmental and labour standards and, for the first time, allow US companies to sue the UK government in special courts. TTIP will change our lives forever.

Even our glorious leader JC vowed to kill TTIP: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-promises-to-kill-ttip-will-work-in-parliament-to-stop-trade-deal-a7060896.html

TPP – Trans-Pacific Partnership. Brief case against (and for) was posted here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498715

Excerpt: US opponents have characterised the TPP as a secretive deal that favoured big business and other countries at the expense of American jobs and national sovereignty. Critics on the left also said it had cost US jobs and said the TPP would pave the way for companies to sue governments that change policy on, say, health and education to favour state-provided services. And it was also seen as intensifying competition between countries’ labour forces.

NATO – Cold War relic that still keeps everyone in a bind. Socialist case against found here: http://socialistreview.org.uk/335/natos-bloody-history

Excerpt: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nato has for the first time become directly involved in military action. The alliance had earlier supported the Portuguese in their protracted colonial wars in Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau, but had not actively intervened. Now it intervened in the Balkans as part of the US attempt to reshape the post-Cold War world in their interests. Although Nato’s 11-week bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 was dressed up as a humanitarian intervention, it was in fact a cynical exercise in great power politics. The Balkans had to fit in with the US’s new world order.

In my earlier articles, I have already written on the matter. Worth looking over it especially the view of George Kennan – father of containment.

Argument:

Trump torpedoed the first two. Casting doubt on their concepts and effect on common people before pulling the trigger. The Left howled and marched. Trump did.

Trump openly questioned NATO’s existence and only backed down after severe pressure from the establishment. I ask my socialist comrades, what three other issues are more important? Nothing gets more macro than this. Why has the rhetoric become more important than deeds. What would be remembered in 20, 50, 100, 300 years’ time? Words, which we know are wind, or real life outcomes?

There is plenty to criticize: Venezuela, Climate Change, Iran etc. etc. but it is important to remember that these are tactical issues which be easily reversed at the end of his tenure and they are micro in nature. Climate change isn’t but 8 years in office vs time continuum make it micro.

We need to condemn where it is deserved but I say we must applaud where it is deserved also. This includes North Korea talks. Keep an open mind comrades and try to see a bigger picture.

British Foreign Policy in XXI Century

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XXI century will be an age of Great Power competition. Perhaps, the final one. The age of consensus had been toppled by wave after wave of populism. History has not ended after all despite triumphalism of the global ruling elites, inspired by Fukuyama and the end of the Cold War. Time to re-evaluate UK’s alliances and long held foreign policy views.

Great Powers: USA, China and Russia

 USA: The special relationship is dead. It’s been dead for some time. It had formed when the power level or we can call it prestige of USA and UK were equivalent or thereabouts. A lot has changed since then. USA got stronger, both economically and militarily, and UK got weaker in every aspect. USA values power and strength above all else, therefore it comes as no surprise that US diplomats, including Obama the First enjoyed a good snigger behind the scenes about our unrequited love. Time to admit, although some still prefer to stay in the la la land, that the special relationship had drawn to its close. Reagan/Thatcher tango was truly the last dance. Tony Blair and subsequent PMs proved more yes men than equal partners in decision making processes. UK Must distance itself from the US. UK must stop acquiescing to every US demand. We lose our appeal. We become a given, a banker on a night-out, which hardly adds to our allure. UK must teach US a lesson and make them work hard towards regaining UK as its closest ally. Both are Anglo-Saxon countries with similar culture and outlook. Good place to start is in Venezuela – US new regime change target – and reducing our defence spending below 2%. This should catch US attention.

China: The most complicated relationship to build of them all. China must be cultivated to see UK as a trusted conciliere. China hasn’t got many allies. There might be a military alliance with Russia but it needs allies with large reserves of soft power. UK has done a lot in its history, i.e. Opium wars, to create a lot of bad blood with China. And well deserved it is. But there were positive steps as well, such is the handover of Hong Kong. XXI century would be marked by the stand-off between China and USA. The trajectory of that struggle is still being determined. UK must play the role of an oil mechanic. We must mediate without taking sides. With time, both China and US, will come to view UK as an excellent neutral interlocutor. UK’s role here is to reduce the tension and to accelerate the dawn of the new consensus based on multilateral approach. To make the relationship stronger, UK must recognise Taiwan as part of China, a gesture of enormous significance to Chinese. This will catch their attention. We must work with Chinese tech giants, both in nuclear and building G5 network. We must show that we trust them. It would echo back with interest. This stance would demonstrate to US and the world, UK’s new, independent approach to world affairs. UK needs to rebuild its economy and Chinese investments would be more than welcome. This would create interdependence and much needed goodwill.

Russia: The easiest relationship to build of them all. UK must first of all get out Great Game mindset that belongs to the XIX century. Every time UK’s existence was in danger: Napoleonic wars, WWI and WWII – Russia and UK were on the same side. A friend in need is a friend indeed. Why do we so easily forget?             One important thing to understand about Russia. They are not revanchist and do not plan to take over, no country can anymore, but they would never accept US as the global policeman.  A position widely accepted in the West, not so much so anywhere else. For evidence look no further that pronouncement of Mr Rasmussen, former PM of Denmark and ex-head of NATO. Ordinary Russians are very fond of UK. British cinema, music and culture has captured Russian imagination long ago. Affluent Russians love to come here and Russian corporations like to invest and float their companies in London. My advice, grab it with both hands and build a strong interdependent economic relationship. No eggs in one basket. Do it before, Germany or France, because one of those three will catch the Russian golden goose.

Summary: Look at USA, Russia and China as big multinational corporations. What do they need? They need bankers, lawyers and accountants to make them run better, smoother and more efficiently. We would be that jack of all trades, that will grease the wheels and make the world go round.

Theresa May Triumphant Return from Brussels

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It was a triumph. Triumph of mediocrity. After two years of painstaking negotiations May returned with a deal that was roundly denounced by both Brexiteers and Remainers. What did they expect? For someone whose primary focus is on style (think leopard shoes, leather trousers, Frida watch) and not substance, this outcome was hardly surprising. She May be the worst PM of all time and does not mind it one bit. All those fools that praise her resilience and bravery are misguided. It is not her stoicism or bravery, it is her pure shamelessness. There is no other word for it, whichever way one spins it. She lost support of most of her colleagues but they go on terrified of Corbyn government. Prepared to tolerate embarrassment in order to preserve themselves. What a sad state of affairs! I only wish JRM the best of luck. We may disagree on many issues but he believes in this country and understands UK’s strong fundamentals. Here, we are in accord. We need competent opposition.

Where did it all go wrong? There were two moments in time that compromised, or severely damaged, clean Brexit process. Gove’s spectacular betrayal of BoJo and surprising pull out of Andrea Leadsom, who I thought was a shining star and best performer during the Brexit debate. I still remember the shocked demeanour of Ian Duncan Smith when he heard the news. Andrea, oh Andrea! The members would have voted for you. With Leadsom at the helm”No deal is better than a bad deal” would have meant exactly that. EU, being very interested in a deal, would have negotiated in good faith, having realised that brinkmanship won’t work with Brexiteer in charge. Behind closed doors, of course. It didn’t happen and we got Submarine May instead. I could hear champagne corks going off in Brussels. Not a death match after all, but a leisurely safari. Pheeeewww. Noone could blame Juncker for having one too many on that occasion…

Indeed, why would EU give UK a good deal when they would like to punish UK and to prevent others from leaving? One thing must be absolutely clear, this is a position of weakness. Position of damage limitation. If there is no deal on the table, the deal suiting EU far more than UK in financial terms, then so be it. Those of indomitable disposition state exactly that. The transitional effect would be short-term at best. German and French papers write about thousands of EU jobs at risk but we do not like to talk about it here. They are all united there, right? Not really, far from it, in fact. What is unity when essentially two states decided EU policy? As Robert Skidelsky wrote in one his recent articles – there is no theorem for what will happen and we need to look at fundamentals. Chief Economist of the biggest German bank DB concurs:

“The UK will do just as well or better… the UK economy has it in its genes to do well, to be innovative, it doesn’t have this bureaucratic construct that the Europeans struggle with and it’s got flexible exchange rates!”

Why is our establishment so hellbent on putting this great country down? Because in the era of individualism and neoliberalism, they have risen above the nation state… Globalisation – death of nation states and the ascent of rootless wealth.

Bottom line:

Theresa May is shameless enough to plough on and she will. There is clearly no support for her white flag deal in UK Parliament. She is sure to lose the vote on the Withdrawal Deal. I dread to think what will happen if it does. Surely, losing the vote will trigger the avalanche of letters to Mr Brady. She might not lose, like Thatcher, but will all those wounds she must be running out of blood and shame. I predict that she will not survive the winter. Cons will put new leader in charge and the election won’t be called until 2022.

Things could have been so different but for another twist in this saga.

On Brexit…

gittoplo

One of the issues that I would be following in this blog is the issue of Brexit and post-Brexit EU in general. Brexit, undoubtedly, was a tectonic event both for United Kingdom and European Union. Forty years of rowing in one direction reversed in one stroke. The event so critically pivotal that it could prove the undoing of the European Union itself given the current rising level of euro-scepticism. I understand the pain and teeth gnashing of Civil Service and business community who will have to adjust to new reality but such are political risks. They had plenty of time to prepare. Since 2014 in fact. Blame your hubris and bad business models incapable of facing headwind. Do not blame Brexit.

I believed in EU until the invasion of Iraq in 2003 (I also blame younger idealistic self). I hoped that the EU would become an alternative power centre and will act as an independent arbiter between US, Russia and China. Alas, EU has become a vassal state which easily splits into Old and New Europe at the snap of the fingers from across the pond. Where was European unity then? There is no unity just self-interest. New Europe, US and UK were wrong. Terribly wrong. If only New Europe (represented primarily by Poland and Baltic states) had supported President Chirac and Chancellor Schroeder then what is happening right now in the Middle East could have been averted but I digress. I will make it be known that I have voted for Brexit and for me the choice facing the British public was as clear as a delight. One position that has resonated with me more than any other – post-Brexit analysis by renowned historian Niall Ferguson (a staunch Remainer who called proponents of Brexit – Angloonies and was one of 300 historians who signed an open letter making a pro-EU case). For him to come out, put his hand up and admit to his mistake was admirable. I disagree with Mr Ferguson on a number of issues but here he had nailed the problem on its head. You can read the full article here:

https://www.bostonglobe.com/opinion/2016/12/12/was-wrong-brexit/P9xUZuE1OGjpkV1wxiZ79J/story.html

The main takeaways:

  • Failure of European monetary union
  • Failure of common foreign policy
  • Failure to deal with financial crisis
  • Failure to deal with mass migration (related to mistakes in foreign policy)
  • Failure to address David Cameron’s concerns in Feb 2016

I particularly agree with a macro view he expressed in this particular passage:

“For years I have argued that Europe became the world’s most dynamic civilization after around 1500 partly because of political fragmentation and competition between multiple independent states. I have also argued that the rule of law — and specifically the English common law — was one of the “killer applications” of western civilization”.

Niall Ferguson was one of the Experts who vociferously predicted doom and gloom. It is my firm belief that the so-called “Experts” were driven by ulterior motives. If they were not then how did they manage to get it so wrong? Emergency budget, house price crash and WW3 to name a few? Unscrupulous or incompetent? Given the sample size of Experts in question we can safely rule out the latter. In Niall’s article, we can see what was behind one of those predictions – to help his mate Dave. What was driving the rest of the Experts brigade I will leave to your imagination.

In this blog, I will continue to debunk pro-EU, and essentially anti-British, argument that Britain made a huge mistake and about to walk off the cliff edge. My stated aim: look at the fundamentals and ignore the Experts who are hellbent on shaping the world rather than on providing sound unbiased advice.