World Politics

US Elections 2020: Post-Mortem

US Elections 2020: Post-Mortem

gittoplo

Weeks after the actual voting day, the most surreal election in US history finally came to an end. Joe Biden beat Donald Trump by 306 electoral votes to 232. A mirror reversal of 2016 result. It was the highest vote turnout since 1900 as Sleepy Joe amassed 81m votes to Trump’s 74m. Remarkable outcome in many ways. Both tallies made absolute minced meat out of previous record held by Barack Obama (69m votes) amid widespread allegations of vote rigging. Incredibly, despite a chasm of 7m in the popular vote, Trump was three states and about 100,000 votes away from winning the White House again. He was expected to win two of those states – Arizona and Georgia. It was mighty close. Trump’s team challenged the official result time and again but to no avail. Only on the 20th of January, Joe Biden’s inauguration day, could the Washington establishment breathe a deep sigh of relief. So great was the fear of the man and the aura of unpredictability that surrounds him that even the most vehement anti-Trumpers were fearing some final killer twist that was promised but never actually materialised in the end. Pre-election projections predicted a resounding repudiation of Trump at the ballot box, which was surely music to the ears of Democrats, Corporate America, European Union, China and even many in the GOP. They certainly did not expect him to improve on his 2016 election victory by acquiring 10m extra votes and to making further inroads into Hispanic/Black voting communities. The mythical beast was indeed defeated but not slain as Trump, gravely wounded but still breathing fire, retreated to his Florida lair to regain his strength and focus.

Now that the result is done and dusted, it is time to evaluate Mr Trump’s stay in office. It was a mixed bag, and these are the highlights:

  • Trump did not start any new wars and tried to bring American troops home as he promised (a trend already reversed by his successor Joe Biden). This alone makes his Presidency a success.
  • He tried, albeit unsuccessfully, to patch things up with Russia but his best efforts were thwarted by the Russia Hoax investigation. The infamous dossier that triggered the whole “witch-hunt” was commissioned by none other than his Democratic rival Hilary Clinton and concocted by the former MI6 operative David Steele who used recycled Kremlin gossip provided by one of his staffers. Just pause for a second and think about that. In the end, Trump was forced to slap more sanctions on Russia than any other President before him. He tried.
  • He made wrong calls on Iran and Venezuela. It was a borderline terrorist act to assassinate General Soleimani – pretty much a second/third person in the country and commander of Quds – and vilify Iran in general. This was done to placate Israel and the Gulf State countries. The former sees Iran as an existential threat and the latter want to prevent a Persian Shia crescent stretching from Iran through Iraq and Syria to the Mediterranean. Nothing new here as Sunnis vs Shia centuries long struggle continues unabated. As for Venezuela, with its largest oil reserves in the world, it has long been a propaganda target for the US aiming to keep its backyard ideologically and politically submissive. Heavy sanctions, with a good dose of internal mismanagement, affect common Venezuelans first and foremost.
  • Trump was also completely out of step with the current environmental agenda as jobs, jobs, jobs became far more important than humanity’s medium to long term future. With many of his supporters in key states dependent on the energy sector and creation of new pipelines, this was always going to go one way but it was short-sighted. Ridiculing wind and solar energy is not what the young generation wants to hear. Easy, low hanging plus turned into a big minus.
  • Finally, Trump would have still been easily re-elected – even the most virulently anti-Trump media conceded it was the likeliest outcome – but he did not foresee the tsunami that was Covid-19 virus. Questioning the pandemic, wearing of masks and off the cuff remarks cost him dear in the end. This was the time to play it safe and he did not. That was the straw that broke the camel’s back. He did deliver on vaccines as promised but by this point the message was too muddled and confusing. Speak of grasping defeat from the jaws of victory.

Conclusion:

Trump has managed to shatter the political landscape of the United States. The country is bitterly and almost irreversibly divided. For all his attacks on conniving socialists, the new paradigm that emerged will pit traditionalists against progressive liberals. It is now a global trend. Neither side will back down. Trump, despite his assurances to do so, did not drain the swamp but he managed to turn it inside out. The storming of the Capitol by an over-excited Trump crowd, which left Senators and Congressmen cowering inside, led to his ban from all media platforms for incitement. This raises serious questions about the freedom of speech in the country and would only lead to further division. Muzzling of the incumbent President was truly something else and the speed of it was something to behold. Trump was impeached, and acquitted, for the unprecedented second time but he triumphed in one aspect. He owns the Grand Old Party now. The Bogey Man is defeated for now but who can bet against the sequel?

 

 

Cassandra Looks Forward

Cassandra Looks Forward

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USA Election 2020:

Despite trailing in the polls I still expect the incumbent to take it. The Debates would make or break Biden and seeing how Trump performed last time around against an arguably more formidable opponent, I expect him to wipe the floor with Sleepy Joe. Many are agreeing that Biden is a not a strong candidate but arguing that he doesn’t have to be. Two things will be on the ballot: Trump and anti-Trump. They are expecting that their Anyone But Trump strategy would prevail but they are forgetting something. It is not just about Trump – classically not a particularly strong candidate either – it never was. The Deplorables & Co had voted for Trump and will do so again for one very prosaic and familiar reason: anyone but you…

Trump Clan:

Trump clan is here to stay. It is far more powerful and diverse in its skill set than Clintons or Obamas. I see at least two people running for President after Donald Trump retires or defeated. Don Jr and Ivanka – the former being a proper chip off the old block. He would appeal to Trump’s current electorate much more successfully. He is one of them. Ivanka, being slightly more woke, would in turn try to bridge the gap between the warring parties which, given the wider culture wars, is impossible and it would affect her chances considerably. And just wait till Barron grows up. That guy is already a star and a shoe-in for the election bid at some point in the future. Trumps are here to stay pretty much until the end of the century.

USA Culture Wars:

They are here to stay and they will stay until the economic balance/fairness is restored to the nation. Something that is impossible under current hard capitalist model. The model where it is 99% vs 1%.  In fact, it will only get worse and may lead to the fragmentation of the nation. I see California and Texas breaking away and causing a massive crisis of confidence. Most great empires, from Assyrians to Mongols, from Russian Empire to the Great Mughals, fell apart due to internal strife and division. Two nuclear powered Americas is a strong possibility.

UK GE 2024:

Like Atlas Boris will carry the fall-out from Brexit/Covid/Economy on his shoulders for as long as he can before he is replaced by the Tory establishment by the squeaky clean, BAME candidate and furlough hero Rishi Sunak. So simple, so effective. Labour would get pulverised at the GE 2024 (they won’t get more 33%) and would implode into non-existence. This would lead to the creation of Labour Left party – possibly with Corbyn as the honourary Chairman – and Labour Right led by the new breed with Tony Blair as the nominal Holy Roman Emperor.

Brexit No Deal Probability:

I have a misfortune of finishing this prediction after Brandon Lewis shocked the House of Commons indicating that Conservative government was prepared to rip up the Withdrawal Agreement and break international law if they failed to get a deal with EU. I could have told you that before he made that statement. Conservatives were prepared to sign anything to get WA over the line in full knowledge that they can do whatever they want once they secure the majority in the subsequent election. It was an ace hidden very deep up their sleeve and now it has made it not so unexpected appearance. UK still wants a deal, of course, but on the terms which they regard as fair. EU bullying had to be brought to a screeching halt. It was finally time for Boris led Brits to turn the tables of blackmail at the 11th hour. EU appears visibly stunned as they have been misreading UK for some time. Boris and Cumming terror duo can afford it. According to the latest polling, Cons have dug in at around 40%-45% mark and refuse to be dislodged no matter what’s the bad news. Red wall will stay with them for as long as there is a perception that Brexit is being delivered. Of course, yours truly was predicting this no-deal outcome from Day 1. Rationale? Both sides are full of hubris and incompetence thus no-deal was always going to be the likeliest scenario. Covid related economic carnage made it even more likely. What was scary last year in terms of economic fall-out seems like peanuts now. Project Fear beaten by Project Apocalypse Now. Sometimes 2+2 is just four.

Scottish Independence:

Scottish independence is inevitable. That snowball cannot be stopped anymore and it will accelerate further as culture wars (nationalism comes under this) rage in the United Kingdom. I expect Scotland to go independent by 2030. Things will develop fast in this long-running opera. Even with the full-on Project Fear rolled out, I expect 180 reversal on the last result. 55/45 for the Yes vote. It has now become a matter of when and both sides know it.

United Ireland:

United Ireland will happen albeit at a slower pace than Scotland. Scotland voting to leave will accelerate calls for a referendum in Northern Ireland (I believe it’s in the Good Friday Agreement already). It will be a close vote but as The Centre (Westminster) gets weaker, pro-independecve movement on the priphery will get stronger. I expect Wales to stay integrated with England.

Putin Retirement 

Following recent constitutional amendments, Vladimir Putin can go for two extra terms: 2024-2030 and 2030- 2036. His current term expires in 2024. My prediction is that he will leave after 2030 thus going for one additional term instead of the allowed two. Rationale: Putin cares about history. He had already restored law and order, economy and Russia’s international prestige. His legacy as one of the Greatest Russians of all time is already secure and he knows it. However, two existential knots remain untied: Ukraine and Belarus. His dream is to reunify Slavic brotherly nations of Russia, Ukraine and Belarus into one entity: Neo-Kievan Rus. He still clearly has plenty of energy and the current geopolitical conditions could not be more propitious to achieve his ultimate ambition. Ukraine – in economic free fall – may not fragment by 2030 but it might federalize by that date. Federal Ukraine is what Putin wants as it would be much easier to deal with and influence. Due to the prevalent nationalist element, things will take some time to get back to normal and the road ahead will be bumpy. In many ways, a new head of state – not the current one who’s burdened with so much baggage – could be the Alexander who decisively cuts the Pontic knot. Belarus, on the other hand, is far more predictable and doable. Despite decades of flirting, Lukashenko is now dead to the West following the disputed presidential elections and the subsequent violence. Batka, as he’s affectionately known, now fully relies on the Russian Big Brother – as he likes to call Russia in the hour of need – for his survival. Lukashenko knows that his current term is probably his last and he might not even survive it. This makes his very pliable. A flurry of recent visits by the Russian ministers and generals indicate that the Union State process, after years of procrastination, has commenced in earnest. Belarus should be integrated with Russia by 2030 in one form or another. Putin would be more than happy with that and will leave on a high after 30 years in power. And having sown the seeds of Ukrainian federalism, it would be up to his successor to bring the Ukraine home to make Russia Great Again. Putin will supervise from the shadows.

Nord Stream II:

The project will go ahead. If it doesn’t then Germany’s reputation would be tatters. Recent German attempts to buy off the US demonstrate that the Germans won’t just roll over. With the full support in Bundestag of Die Linke, AFD and strong backing of SDP, I expect common sense to prevail. Even Merkel’s CDU/CSU alliance is divided on the issue. Germany hasn’t been this brave with its American Big Brother for many decades and sometimes one needs to make a stand and show that they are not pushovers. Failure to do so could also be catastrophic domestically. Nord Stream II could be that chance. Trump’s presidency and his potential re-election would help NS2. Should Biden prevail, then risk of cancellation would increase but I still expected it to go ahead. Too much political, reputational and financial capital has been expended for it to fail.

 

 

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UK Election Post Mortem, Putin’s Bombshell & Trump’s Iran Gambit

UK Election Post Mortem, Putin’s Bombshell & Trump’s Iran Gambit

gittoplo

So it happened. Just over a month ago. 

The most depressing aspect of this defeat is the equanimity with which I have taken it on the chin. Years and years of insidious infighting and media bombardment played a crucial role but in the end Brexit was King. As many, myself included, have warned. As someone who is becoming more and more optimistic as the years go by – I have a feeling that I am in the minority here – my first and lasting thought was that at least now Brexit will get done. Historical and fatalistic symbolism of Brexit prevailed above all else. It was the right thing to happen and sadly, we were on the wrong side of history…and democracy. Where did the mistakes happen? I would point to two events:

1) Corbyn succumbing to the Remain narrative to achieve illusory unity. Corbyn is a Leaver. He should have stuck to his guns. It just looked fake and hurt him time and again. Remember Johnson’s ridicule of Corbyn being taken hostage by the Remainers? It was funny because it was true.

2) Once his 7/10 Remain stance has backfired, he was challenged by a small timer under the name of Owen Smith. Corbyn easily won and should have used that mandate to purge the ranks. It could have cost him his title but it would have secured and defined the party’s trajectory for a long time to come.

Now Corbyn lost the election and could lose the party in April 2020 when the result of the leadership elections is announced. I am quietly hoping for RLB/Burgon ticket. Wouldn’t mind Butler or Angela in Deputy role either but that in that order of preference.

 ———————————

In true Vladimir style, President of Russia dropped an A-bomb on Russia’s elite and Kremlinologists worldwide. Russian constitution to be redrawn. Presidential powers would be somewhat reduced and limited to two terms. Putin doesn’t want another Putin because it could easily turn out to be another Yeltsin or Gorbachev. Thomas Carlyle’s words ring true. Great man theory strikes a chord with me but “great men” could be good and bad. Vlad knows that his place in the pantheon of greatness is already secure but how do you secure your legacy? By having spent a good part of the last two decades as the elected, benevolent autocrat, he wants to be known as a statesman who brought true democracy to Russia by empowering the multi-party Duma system. He wants Russians to remember that it was him, despite somewhat unchallenged rule, who has created the propitious conditions for another upward shift in Russian political system. On the foreign policy front, it would also be much harder for the West powers, namely UK and US, to accuse Russia of authoritarianism which is another boon in Vladimir’s eyes.  That would be his legacy and as the old saying goes: the end justifies the means. Medvedev – long thought of as a potential successor – just didn’t have it and was far too associated with the past 20 years. Here is my favourite photograph of them together.

 

Beautiful.

——————————————

After Venezuela’s failed putsch, this was Trump’s second biggest mistake. It even shocked his own countrymen, let alone Asian and European partners. You can’t just go around and take people out like that. Not the 2nd most senior person in Iran – the Persian Lion General Qassem Soleimani. He’s become a martyr who unified the nation and who would revered even 1,000 years from now. There are certain rules to the game albeit recently the Russian President had complained about the lack of rules. Case in point.  Cost/Benefit just doesn’t add up. Iran would now be more determined than ever to create a Shia crescent across Mesopotamia and the Levant. On the macro level, I foresee the withdrawal of US troops from Iraq as demanded by the Iraqi parliament. I see a gradual rapprochement between Sunni Gulf states and Iran which has already started in a somewhat clandestine fashion. Why? Saudis have realised that they cannot rely solely on US anymore.

 

 

As the world fretted about what would be Iran’s response and that we are about to witness the start of WW3 (I am serious, check twitter), I knew the response would be measured with the goal of de-escalation. They cannot start a proper war they know they cannot win There is a personal aspect to this. Trump individually made the decision to terminate General Qassem. I predict Iranians would – God forbid, of course – target his immediate family once he is no longer in office. What would hurt Trump more: US soldiers dying doing their duty or something happening to Ivanka/Don Jr? Exactly. Iran knows that. Revenge is a dish best served cold.

Maltese Mafia & Modern Day Socialists, German SPD Left wing & Election Prediction

Maltese Mafia & Modern Day Socialists, German SPD Left wing & Election Prediction

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Maltese PM Joseph Muscat – Honorary Knight Commander of the Order of St Michael and St George no less – has announced that he is stepping down in Jan 2020. This is due to his handling of the investigation into the murder of Daphne Caruana Galizia. EU special envoy to Malta, Sophie Veld, said that trust between Malta and the EU had been damaged and that PM Muscat has done very little to ameliorate the situation. This only means one thing – amidst the current media blackout surrounding the situation – that he and his crony administration are dodgy as hell. Want to buy Maltese, aka EU, passport? No problem. $1,000,000 pls. What a fantastically renewable model! Events in Malta bear a striking resemblance to what happened in Slovakia and their PM Fico. Luckily, mass outrage has forced both of these money enthusiasts out but the fact remains: journalists investigating corruption at the highest level are being murdered in EU member states.

But there is more. Who are the patrons, consiglieres and other fwends of PM Muscat? You will never guess. The New Labour Party Massive: Tony Blair (Muscat was once proudly anointed as Mr Blair’s Mini-Me and latches on to his every word), Alastair Campbell (Mr Campbell said he would be using his recent trip to advise Mr Muscat who was ‘a bit corrupt’ but ‘no murderer’. Lovely). And let us not forget Mr Iain McNicol, now of McNicol Consulting, who lied about his trips to Malta. Said he was on holiday with his son while in reality was meeting Government ministers. Oh dear! How did socialism metamorphose from Marx/Engels/Lenin to Blair/Campbell/McNicol? 

 

 

Finally, Germany gets on with the programme. Labour’s equivalent in Germany, the SPD, has finally elected a duo of true socialists – Norbert Walter-Borjans and Saskia Esken. Decimated by propping up German Tories, the CDU-CSU, by adherence to neoliberalism (and balanced budgets). This is important. Corbyn’s Labour winning the election is not enough. The tax dodgers and the big money are already threatening to leave our shores if the Real Change agenda is implemented. But where would they go? Not France, if future President Melenchon or Le Pen have their way. Not Italy, with 5-Star more than happy to follow the lead of its European left wingers. Even right-wing Lega Nord would not provide succour the mega-rich are looking for. Spain? What with prodigal Socialists doing deals with Podemos? And that’s just the start. That left Germany and now this… It won’t be easy but SPD, after years in the wilderness, are ready to enter the political purgatory and cleans their sins. Once they recover, in the next few years, I can see them joining forces with Die Linke and the Greens. And that’s Germany in the bag. Japan and Hong Kong are not exactly the most popular destinations, due to distance and cultural differences. This leaves the mothership…

 

 

The clouds are gathering in the US as well. Sanders and Warren – should either of them become the President – are not going to be their buddies. With their wealth taxation plans hanging like a Damocles Sword over the American One Percent. I also expect Tulsi Gabbard – the dark horse of the race – to do the right thing. USA would take some time – as it takes time to clean the Augean stables – but the direction of travel would be  determined and clear.

So where would they go and for how long? UK, even under socialism, is still a magnet for the rich Russians, Asians and other Europeans. It is a hollow threat. As the saying goes, better the devil you know. Pay your fair share and sleep well at night. And UK, once again, would be in the vanguard of global change.

 

 

The argument that Labour are out of it and are unelectable is for the birds. This narrative had some potency pre-2017 but by achieving 40% – despite a barrage of attack from media, big business and even a good bulk of his own MPs – Corbyn’s Labour shattered that pseudo-construct. We all have issues with cognitive dissonance, but we must remain fair. 40% was an astounding result. Corbyn proved to be very competitive and a master campaigner. To rule him out the second time – this time pre-2019 GE and post-40% – is just folly. Variables change, such is their function, but the fundamentals do not. GE 2017 activated a two party system in the UK and it is not leaving anytime soon. Lib Dems led by woeful and out-of-depth Swinson are freefalling and hemorrhaging Remain votes to Labour. There are still two weeks to go and I expect the polls to tighten even further.

 My prediction, Labour would stop just short of 40% and would form a Coalition government with SNP by promising them a 2nd referendum in 2022. Following a proposed investment of almost £70bn – showing that Scotland matters – and a good campaign, I expect Remain to prevail over Leave in Scotland by the ironic 52-48 margin.

 

Spider Hale, Greedy Bidens and Glorious Leaders of our Age

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Rejoice! Gina Miller and her possy managed to defeat British democracy once again. Through no little help of the UK Supreme Court. One might argue what makes it Supreme in the first place but that’s a topic for another conversation. Given the unanimous 11-0 judgement – despite many expecting a split vote – one would have thought it was a clear cut case but, of course, it wasn’t. Highest court in England & Wales unanimously thought otherwise. Attorney General Geoffrey Cox thought otherwise. Unanimous? My, my – the establishment pulled an extra shift on that occasion. The judgement was accepted for the court is supreme and its judgement, by inference, is unbiased, non-partisan and final. Or is it? This week Baroness Hale, who presided over the Supreme Court’s decision, was pictured giving a talk which she started with the girl swot analogy – used by PM Johnson to refer to David Cameron. Lady Hale – the embodiment of balance, justice and unbiasedness – clearly took the comment too close to heart for she was that girl swot and proud of it. And she should be but as long as it doesn’t impair her judgement. On a screen behind her one can observe the topic of the talk – Spider woman takes down Hulk: Viewers transfixed by judge’s brooch as ruling crushes PM. Spiderwoman is Hale – she wore a massive spider brooch when she delivered the verdict – and PM Johnson is the self-proclaimed Hulk. She’s clearly enjoying the aftermath.  Enjoying the attention, enjoying being the latest symbol  of girl power and enjoyed, at the time, rubbing it in PM’s face. How else to interpret the visuals provided by my eyecicles? Human after all. Another conclusion beckons: we do not live in a democracy. What’s democratic about constitutional monarchy? What’s democratic about FPTP electoral system? And now we scale new heights, what’s democratic about not respecting once-in-a-generation referendum results?

 

 

 

Poor Trump. The guy just can’t catch a break. Just when he thought he was out, they pulled him back in. Fresh off the hoax that was Russiagate, we enter the Ukrainegate. One might laugh but the Democrats have actually started the impeachment procedure against him. He is likely to be impeached by the Democrat-controlled Congress but it is unlikely to pass the Republican-controlled Senate which would also require 2/3 majority. But what is Ukrainegate and how serious is it? The charge is that President Trump tried to lean on President Zelensky during a phone call  to investigate the Biden family. Biden family? What have they got to do with Ukraine? Well, during his tenure as VP, Biden Sr was effectively supervising Ukraine and there was an filmed incident on where he threatened to withhold a billion dollars in aid if the Ukrainian authorities failed to sack the current Attorney General Victor Shokin. Immediately. Apparently, his plane was leaving in one hour so chop chop. Mr Shokin – shock, horror – was promptly sacked. Flagrant interference in judicial affairs of another country is one thing but there is more to the story. It turns out that Biden Jr was appointed to the Board of Directors of a natural gas company called Burisma –   a company of very questionable reputation – which Mr Shokin happened to be investigating. Number of questions spring to mind? What does Biden Jr has to do with Ukraine? Nothing. Has he got any experience in natural gas industry? No. So how on Earth did he end up on the Board unless it was a favour for his Dad? Is Trump wrong to ask for this to be looked into? What’s more important: truth or form? How else would the Western word know about it if not for Trump and let alone do something about it? People in Ukraine are pretty clear on what went down but are now caught between a Republican Scylla and the Democratic Harybda. Impossible to please both.

In the latest development, when asked if he knows anything about his son dealings with Burisma, Biden Sr answered: never. Well, here is a resurfaced picture of Biden Sr., Biden Jr and a Burisma executive (far left). What possibly could have they discussed? I know, I know. Girls gotta eat.

 

A few words about the unscrupulous careerist with a charming smile, namely Rory Stewart. The entitlement must run in his veins. Having failed to become a Conservative leader – I mean he has been an MP for such a long time – Rory has decided today to run for London Mayor as independent. A man in pursuit of glory. What is his Mount of Everest? Staying in EU, of course. Oh, the lofty ambitions. The man reminds me of Steerpike. Let’s hope for a more cheerful ending. Get ready for the SmugBowl 2020 – Selfie Sadiq vs Walking Rory.

 

Someone…kill me…

 

 

Elections, Kim and Gavin

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A comedian becomes a President of Ukraine by trouncing hapless Poroshenko at the polls by a 50% margin. The result is an emphatic condemnation of President Poroshenko himself and the myriad of his controversial and populist policies: economy is in tatters, civil war in the east goes on unabated, new societal splits were created by his assault on the official church of Ukraine and the status of the Russian language – most commonly spoken tongue in the country. Poroshenko was the darling of the EU and the US although the shine has somewhat markedly dimmed with the passage of time. The gamble, long in preparation, was made to drive a wedge between the two nations which many Russians and Ukrainians consider to be the same people harking back to Kievan Rus times in the 11th century. They have thrown a lot of money and political capital behind Poroshenko in the last 5 years. Thus their shock at the result and the rush to build bridges with newly elected President Ze. If the latter were to reverse the course undertaken in the past 5 years then it would be a total fiasco of the US and to lesser extent EU foreign policy. At the end of the day, visa free travel and association agreement looked great on paper but didn’t bring mirth or prosperity to the disenchanted populace. Certainly worth getting a macroeconomic snapshot which doesn’t paint a pretty picture: nominal GDP down from $183bn to $130bn, GDP per capita went from $4,030 to even paltrier $2,656, debt-to-GDP ratio went from 40% to 60% having reached 81% in 2016. Ukraine is a patient on IMF life support at the moment. Things some people do for the greater cause at the expense of millions… This dire economic landscape comes with a twist: according to UkrStat (the State Statistics Service of Ukraine), the Russian Federation became the largest investor in Ukraine’s economy in 2018. Go figure. President Ze is somewhat of a wildcard, as in he can go two ways. If he maintains the current course, a serious escalation with Russia beckons. Once Russia realizes that the current trajectory of travel is here to stay then they will activate their efforts at undermining Ukraine. They see NATO aspirations of a certain stratum of Ukrainian political elites/society as an existential threat that must be stopped at all costs. Would US like it if Russians started building military bases in Mexico or Canada? No. It goes both ways. At the moment, Putin still harbours hope that the new leader would kick start a more balanced approach to Ukraine’s foreign and domestic policy. Ukraine, by itself only constituting a few regions historically, has been a battlefield for Russia, Polish-Lithuanian Commonwealth, Sweden, Ottoman Empire for many centuries. In my humble opinion, federalization and neutrality is the best way forward that takes into account Ukraine’s diverse population, geographic location, history and economic structure. Whether common sense takes hold is another matter. Personally, I predict a dangerous escalation before a screeching 180. Brinkmanship is the word of the day.

Some were bemused by Kim’s visit and meeting with Putin in Vladivostok, Russia. Allow me to elaborate: as I have written before, Kim is very keen on striking a deal and setting North Korea on a new path to prosperity and harmony with its neighbors. China, Russia, South Korea and the region in general desire the same. It is a win-win for everyone. There is a lot of economic potential ready to be unlocked, especially once the Korean reunification takes place, and I am sure no one in the region enjoys watching North Korean’s nuclear sabre rattling which they would like to stop. This plays handsomely into the general narrative of the approaching Asian Age. There is, of course, an elephant in the room, luckily, a benevolent elephant who is keen on doing a deal. It’s his thing, you know. In many ways, the current chronology of the events bears a striking resemblance to the Star wars Trilogy. Singapore summit brought New Hope. Then we had witnessed how Empire Strikes Back in Hanoi, Vietnam. Elated by the progress and good will of the first summit, Trump pushed too far. Kim was ready to settle for 60/40 or perhaps even 70/30 in US favour but Trump wanted more. He wanted to see, feeling greater need for a deal from the Korean side, how much he can push. He miscalculated but not by much. Kim is a proud person and the visuals (how things are being perceived) matter but he would have also felt the chill of a potential failure because then what? That brings us to the third summit, yet to take place but currently being discussed by both parties. Why would the third time be any different? Both sides, having learned the lessons from the second meeting, would be in prime position to strike a deal. We do not have infinite turns and it is important not to lose the positive momentum. Kim went to Russia to be briefed by Vladimir Putin. Since both parties have the same geopolitical aims, Kim wanted his advice on how to deal with Trump and the United States. The advice that Kim would not have been able to get anywhere else. Or trust, for that matter. Watch the space. I have a feeling, that in the next installment, The Return of the Deal, the world would be third time lucky.

Spare a thought for the former Defence Secretary and fireplace salesperson Mr Gavin Williamson. Ignominious end for a political amateur who in a short period of time managed to tell Russia to “shut up and go away”, sent British aircraft carrier to the South China Sea to teach nuclear powered and most populous nation in the world a lesson and arrogantly dismissive of his own now former boss: “ I made her, I’ll break her”. Yesterday he was fired for being a mole, leaking from the holy of holies – the NSC meeting. With his political career in tatters, I can only hope his children can forgive him.

Hero of our Time

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On the 11th of April 2019 British Police Force were into the 7th year of their siege of the Ecuadorian Embassy. The enemy of the state was none other than Julian Assange, who stubbornly and to great personal discomfort resisted the superior force for years. His charge? Exposing war crimes, deceit, surveillance state and the corruption of the establishment on the industrial scale.

The gruelling siege has finally ended, like most ancient stories, with a betrayal. Lenin, please stop laughing, Moreno has revoked Assange’s immunity, previously granted by his predecessor President Correa. The gates were open by the smiling erstwhile guardian of the Hero – Ambassador of Ecuador. Minutes later, dishevelled Assange was dragged out and the freedom of the press worldwide took a shattering blow. The message was clear: you go against the grain, you will suffer the consequences. The fact that BBC or the SKY news were AWOL at the time of the arrest and the actual footage for the posterity was provided by the only media outlet present – Russian Ruptly – speak volumes about the bizarre world we live in. We have become a country that arrests dissidents and freedom fighters.

What caused the betrayal? The official version is the unreasonable behaviour of Mr Assange. Rinse your mouth. The actual reason probably lies in the 180 degree turn performed by the President Moreno. Some argue it was the $4.2bn IMF loan provided to Ecuador a month before that did the trick. Alternatively, it could be a simple case of exposed corruption. Wikileaks, through INA Papers, accused President Moreno of taking Chinese money in order to facilitate a hydroelectric dam project. Moreno’s cut was apparently then laundered in Panama. Not bad for someone who’s been in power for just over a year. I guess some are just born with it. Former President Correa was emphatic in his assessment:

 

 

There are a number of charges to consider: US, UK and Sweden – all close allies, from the Iraq war to the destruction of the Libyan state, and an axe to grind against Mr Assange. In Sweden, Mr Assange was accused of rape by two separate women. Not just one, but two. This way the image of a monster is more believable. They’d conceded that the process was consensual until they have asked him to wear protection. Apparently, he flipped after that. I do not know about you but I do not know of any men who would flip over such trivial issue, especially those of seemingly mild disposition. I think, given that the charges were dropped anyway, we can discard that interpretation of the story. That’s not the reason why Powers that be are after the contemporary Hero of our Time. Then there is a smaller British charge of skipping bail, which is connected to the Swedish rape case. Mr Assange has indeed broke the law and skipped bail. We all know why he did – to survive, to avoid the extradition. Speaking of which brings us to the real charge, until now unknown. Charge that forced Assange to flee for safety…or so he thought.

US prosecutors insist Mr Assange is sent to the US to answer charges of working with Chelsea Manning to steal highly confidential military info and diplomatic cables. Like US soldiers murdering civilians and Reuters journalists in cold blood. Of course, this is just an original charge. We must not forget that WikiLeaks swung the 2016 election. It purportedly hacked DNC servers, published the truth (DNC favoring Hilary Clinton over Bernie Sanders and successfully working towards that goal – all very democratic by the Democrats) and tipped the election in Trump’s favour. The cataclysmic event that unsettled both the establishment (money, media) and the deep state in the shadows (power, foreign policy). Of course, it is quite hard to ascertain the truth because the Democratic Party never handed over their servers for examination by the FBI and other respected bodies thus putting President Trump through two year hell. Why not? Well, my dear reader, use your imagination… When Mueller’s report detonated that theory, by refusing to indict Assange, all hell broke loose. It is also noteworthy, in the light of Mr Assange’s arrest, that none of the US stalwarts of the Left, from self-proclaimed socialists to social democrats, kept an eerie silence as their Left leaning colleagues raged across the world. Compare their reaction to Corbyn’s – true champion of justice and human rights – and feel the difference. Vacuous AOC, ” I will be supporting Ms Clinton” Bernie, “Pocahontas” Warren et al are all fakes, phonies, duds, you name it. Democratic Party – the party of war and US exceptionalism – is nearly dead. Nearly, because there is still some hope with Ms Tulsi Gabbard. I will be watching her campaign with great interest. None of the other candidates strike me as genuine or having the right vision.

What happens next is of paramount importance. Mr Assange is very likely to be extradited to US and I will be surprised if he is not. There is a Joke in the pack: Mr Trump. His reaction is likely to be ambivalent. Remember, he luuurves Wikileaks. Having said that, only one thing can ensure his safety and fair treatment. Only one thing can ensure that we live and continue to live in a fair world. General Election in 2019 and victory of the Labour Party under Jeremy Corbyn. Stars are still aligning but the moment is approaching. We must stand ready.

Mueller vs Trump: The Report and Implications

gittoplo

The Mueller report has finally landed this week. The verdict? Trump and his associates DID NOT collude with the Russian government. I think it would be pertinent to throw in some numbers, just for the emphasis of the scale of the investigation:

  • 675 days is how long the investigation landed
  • 19 lawyers and 40 FBI agents, intelligence analysts, forensic accountants assisted with the investigation
  • 2,800 subpoenas at an average of 4 per day
  • 500 search warrants executed
  • 34 people were indicted including Trump’s personal lawyer who sang like a canary that forgot what the bullet looks like
  • 13 evidence requests to foreign governments

It became swiftly clear that the report would not carry any new serious bombshells. If there were any then they would have been leaked, like the dripping, marinated juice off the meat that is about to get a good grilling, to work up an appetite. This hasn’t transpired, the narrative that Mueller runs a tight ship was always for the birds. Despite his best efforts, he had nothing.

I think it would be safe to conclude that the investigation was thorough and had one very clear brief: Destroy Trump and his project. Project that threatens or creates too much uncertainty for the current elites (business, political, media). The very idea of Trump being a Manchurian candidate was always preposterous. The man was in the public eye for most of his life. The intelligence and the security establishment would have checked him out long before he had even decided to run for the President. If he wanted to build Trump Plaza in Moscow then it was not because he found himself in a vice-like grip of the GRU but because he has global ambitions. Of course, Russians wanted Trump to win. Their aim is the creation of a multi-polar world. A world without a corrupt global policeman. Putin has spoken about it for years with increasing frequency.  This geopolitical new balance of power can only be reached through close cooperation of great powers. Initial cooperation can either be loose or quite close to begin with. I predict that it would start with the former, given the current state of play, before transitioning into the latter. It would greatly depend on leaders in charge at the time but one thing is beyond doubt. This is now, bar major global conflict, is the new trajectory of development. Multi-polar world means hundreds in billions spent on education, science, aid instead on expensive war toys and military bases. Multi-polar world means the resolution of many crises that are long overdue: Korea, India-Pakistan, Israel-Palestine conflict and the elevation & preservation of Africa. We need to eliminate negative, winner takes it all approach to competition between states and shift to a new paradigm. Idealistic, perhaps, but doable. We must try.

Bottom line:

What happens next? Knowing Trump, he would go after the initiators of the report. Do not expect this to die down any time soon. The victim must become a martyr and he is going to milk it to the max. Last obstacle to his support by the traditional GOP has now been removed. It is important to remember that for some it was an obstacle but for many just an excuse. They would all have to rally behind the President now. This in turn greatly increases the chances of his re-election. In fact, Trump 2020 is a terrific bet. I think Trump would wait until his second term to make any inroads with Russia. The remains of this term would be focused on the economy and addressing trade imbalances with China and EU. He will work on his legacy in 2020-2024. Will he be the one to truly change the world remains to be seen…

 

Don Trump – Undercover Leftie and why the hate?

Don Trump – Undercover Leftie and why the hate?

gittoplo

 

For years if not decades, socialists and other variations of the left, opposed three following concepts. They marched. They smashed. They howled at the moon. All to no avail.

TTIP – Transatlantic Trade and Investment Partnership. A brief description of Socialist case against can be found here: https://waronwant.org/what-ttip:

Excerpt: TTIP is a major new deal being negotiated behind closed doors between the EU and USA. It will cost at least 1 million jobs, undermine our most treasured public services, lead to a ‘race to the bottom’ in food, environmental and labour standards and, for the first time, allow US companies to sue the UK government in special courts. TTIP will change our lives forever.

Even our glorious leader JC vowed to kill TTIP: https://www.independent.co.uk/news/uk/politics/jeremy-corbyn-promises-to-kill-ttip-will-work-in-parliament-to-stop-trade-deal-a7060896.html

TPP – Trans-Pacific Partnership. Brief case against (and for) was posted here: https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/business-32498715

Excerpt: US opponents have characterised the TPP as a secretive deal that favoured big business and other countries at the expense of American jobs and national sovereignty. Critics on the left also said it had cost US jobs and said the TPP would pave the way for companies to sue governments that change policy on, say, health and education to favour state-provided services. And it was also seen as intensifying competition between countries’ labour forces.

NATO – Cold War relic that still keeps everyone in a bind. Socialist case against found here: http://socialistreview.org.uk/335/natos-bloody-history

Excerpt: Since the collapse of the Soviet Union, Nato has for the first time become directly involved in military action. The alliance had earlier supported the Portuguese in their protracted colonial wars in Angola, Mozambique and Guinea-Bissau, but had not actively intervened. Now it intervened in the Balkans as part of the US attempt to reshape the post-Cold War world in their interests. Although Nato’s 11-week bombing campaign against Yugoslavia in 1999 was dressed up as a humanitarian intervention, it was in fact a cynical exercise in great power politics. The Balkans had to fit in with the US’s new world order.

In my earlier articles, I have already written on the matter. Worth looking over it especially the view of George Kennan – father of containment.

Argument:

Trump torpedoed the first two. Casting doubt on their concepts and effect on common people before pulling the trigger. The Left howled and marched. Trump did.

Trump openly questioned NATO’s existence and only backed down after severe pressure from the establishment. I ask my socialist comrades, what three other issues are more important? Nothing gets more macro than this. Why has the rhetoric become more important than deeds. What would be remembered in 20, 50, 100, 300 years’ time? Words, which we know are wind, or real life outcomes?

There is plenty to criticize: Venezuela, Climate Change, Iran etc. etc. but it is important to remember that these are tactical issues which be easily reversed at the end of his tenure and they are micro in nature. Climate change isn’t but 8 years in office vs time continuum make it micro.

We need to condemn where it is deserved but I say we must applaud where it is deserved also. This includes North Korea talks. Keep an open mind comrades and try to see a bigger picture.

Iran Deal Cancelled: Implications

gittoplo

Ever since President Trump has pulled out of the Iran deal, public with a passing interest have been subjected to a cacophony of alarmed voices and opinions. Experts, mass media and even high level officials of various states were in broad agreement. The gist of it came down to a simple statement: How can we trust US to honour any agreements they make? The subsequent parallel was drawn in regards to the North Korea talks. Why would North Korean leader trust US/Trump when he cancelled a similar landmark Iran deal at a whim? There is some truth to it, in a wider sense, as another example comes to mind: 2002 ABM treaty. But we must address each situation separately as Iran and North Korea are unique in their own ways. Only Trump, hitherto on the US side, could have solved North Korean conundrum as it required a unique, bespoke approach which he provided. Each one of his predecessors lacked both in political will and personal charisma to make it happen. Let’s not forget that North Korea is already in possession of nuclear missiles capable of reaching US territory. This deal is happening, no matter what. Kim understands the difference and is not perturbed by the developments concerning the Iran deal. Then there is another aspect to this that plays a crucial role. North Korean neighbours and nominal adversaries are interested in deal becoming a success: South Korea and Japan – key US allies in Asia-Pacific. This is very important and helps to facilitate the process. In regards to Iran, both Israel and Saudi Arabia (key US allies in the Middle East) were not interested and opposed the Iranian deal. They believed and still do that the deal would make Iran stronger economically (the removal of the crippling sanction regime) while not stopping their “insidious” nuclear programme. This doesn’t help and it didn’t in the end. Trump knows that the Iran deal can be reversed and probably would be by the Trump’s successor – problem, broadly, solved, if there ever was one. North Korea, on the other hand, is a once in a lifetime opportunity and only  Trump’s mercurial touch can cut through that Gordian knot. He will grasp with both hands as history beckons. This is why I believe that parallels being drawn are not quite relevant and out place on a grander scheme of things. Just more Trump hysteria. Plus, let us not forget that the reversal of Iran deal was one of Trump’s key pre-election promises. He likes to be seen as a man of his word. This would play out nicely and help him greatly in 2020 campaign. As for European leaders shaking their fists in righteous anger across the ocean, well, they, just like Trump, will fade with time and new faces will emerge who would be keen to start afresh. Important to remember two pearls of wisdom: “universe is flux” and “deal concluded was the necessity of the past, deal broken is the necessity of the present.” Trump embodies both perfectly.